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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:37 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Sep 12, 2006
Posts: 1388
So we have moved from "We don't need emergency funds, so everything's grand" to "We have emergency funds, but we haven't used them yet, so everything's grand".

What a farce.

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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:49 pm 
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Let us be clear, Fianna Fail have invited the IMF here.

Since they can not admit it themselves it is up to us to tell them the truth. Therefore we are negotiating with the IMF. That is all that is important. The idea they are fighting for "our" interests is a moot point. If they had they would never had to invite the IMF here nor would they be fighting tooth and nail to protect "Corporation Tax"

Ironically, "Let's be clear" is a favorite phrase used by Lenihan.

I would also like to point out one of our regular users here contacted me mid September of 2010 and indicate they had two separate and clear sources form inside our government that indicated that a larger contingent of IMF would be here in November and that 4 representativeness had already been stationed here.

Let us be clear, this is not something that happened over night. For the record like.

The established that Fianna Fail have invited the IMF here begs the question which they do not move to is should Fianna Fail be negotiating on our behalf the answer is NO.

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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 1:04 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Apr 24, 2009
Posts: 253
EU/IMF FINANCIAL AID PLAN FOR IRELAND TO BE ANNOUNCED NEXT WEEK -EU SOURCES - REUTERS


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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 2:11 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Mar 2, 2007
Posts: 4175
Quote:
Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague has said he hopes the euro survives, but it is impossible to know whether the currency would collapse.



http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1120/economy.html


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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 3:09 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Oct 3, 2008
Posts: 3537
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ ... nt=Twitter


Quote:
... IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Europe is moving “too slowly” to resolve the sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece.

>>>

"The next one in line is going to be Portugal.' [Roubini said] "Due to the severity of Portuguese debt problems, Portugal is going to lose market access—and that means they are going to require IMF support as well.

But the real nightmare domino is Spain. Roubini refers to the Spanish debt problems as "the elephant in the room".

"You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line."

"But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."


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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:54 pm 
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Speculator

Joined: Feb 19, 2009
Posts: 412
The questions that are worrying us are to a large extent irrelevant.

Portugal will shortly find itself in our position. That much is sure.

The key though is Spain. The bond markets may or may not force it to seek a bail out.
Rationally speaking it should not need one. The markets have been anything but rational.
If Spain goes the pressure transfers to Germany and to the electorate that decided to use us as a penal battalion in its fight with the markets.
Then and only then will Europe get the quantative easing that is the only sensible way out of these difficulties.

If Spain does not go under then the only possible consequence of Germany's current stance is a two tier euro.

No one proposing the currently fashionable default/burning option knows what consequences it would have for us.
It is better therefore to cooperate, argue our case but do nothing to annoy the powers that be and hope that Spain ushers in Gotterdamerung.


Our futures depend on a number.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND


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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 9:24 pm 
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Speculator

Joined: Feb 19, 2009
Posts: 412
In a couple of months we'll wonder how we ever got so worked up about the terms of this deal.

As I said to Ajai in the Merrion on Friday night there's nothing to worry about. Spain will save us.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/25/416171/new-years-resolutions-for-spain/
Quote:
Which could make rolling €59bn of bonds in six months next year a tricky prospect,...
sales of €18bn in April, €23bn in July and a further €18bn in October. Put the dates in your diary. (If this week’s less than smooth bond sale is anything to go by, the small January sale might not be plain sailing either.)

And then there’s the elefante in the room, the known unknown that is Spanish bank assets:
... a number of uncertainties remain regarding the condition of the local Cajas, especially in light of their exposure to mortgage loans in an environment of a deflating housing market. Quantifying their financial position accurately is a very hard task.



PS.
http://www.examiner.ie/home/pension-reserve-funds-to-be-spent-on-banks-137796.html
Quote:
The emphasis in the plan is to avoid drawing down money from the bailout and rely in the first place on money from the Pension Reserve Fund for the banks, and on the €20bn the state borrowed earlier this year to part-fund next year’s national budget.

Economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute, John FitzGerald, said he believed it would be a good idea to use the money in the pensions fund to recapitalise the banks, and keep the EU/IMF funds in reserve in case they needed further money later.

"Using the €20bn in cash we have first would be good for the country in the short run. It would leave the opening debt for 2012 €20bn lower and interest payments would be €1bn less. It would also leave the national debt lower than forecast at the end of next year," he said.


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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:56 am 
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First Time Buyer

Joined: Apr 3, 2010
Posts: 96
The IMF coming here will end very badly, have a look at this 2 minute cartoon, the similarity to Ireland is quite scary. Were Berts, Brian and Conor our economic hitmen? I hope they enjoy the layer of privilege they think they secured for themselves.



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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:15 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jun 5, 2008
Posts: 1499
The IMF playbook hasn't really changed .. The path is in general the same...

Will we be ticking the box in 9 months time in relation to FG.. A change in leadership but heh still stuck with the debt obligations... Promises promises promises, where have I heard that before..

Time will tell...Let's be Positive for now..

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 Post subject: Re: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IM
PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:10 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation
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Joined: Dec 29, 2008
Posts: 2169
And as expected, the sell off in our forests, planes, gas pipelines, and other stuff we thought were ours is imminent, not for jobs of course, to pay off a tiny portion of our debt, which no one can figure out who is the man we owe it to, hoping in any case he'd forget about it, whoever he is. Well he hasn't fprgotten:
http://www.thejournal.ie/government-urg ... 1-Jan2012/
Since FG promised this wouldn't happen, that means this is the part where we rise up and kick them out, right?

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