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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:26 pm 
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Tyler wrote:
In many ways similar to wind up of Anglo here governments and regulatory authorities and now the EU adopt a "needs must approach" to law - effectively there is no law where it is an inconvenience to the powers that be and they can suspend it or set it aside completely

consequences of that are quite frightening

No, a similar thing here would be that depositors in all banks and credit unions took a haircut when Anglo was wound up. It is not just the setting aside of law; it is the setting aside of, eh, natural law if you like and all common sense. That is what is scary.

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:40 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Tyler wrote:
"The general principle about free movement of capital is defined in Art. 63 TFEU. This Article stipulates that "…all restrictions on the movement of capital between Member States and between Member States and third countries shall be prohibited."

Surely all a person has to do is open a bank account in a country outside Cyprus and transfer their money out

IF not then the founding tenet of the EU - free movement of capital is now gone and EU legitimacy is gone too.

Well, yeah, but what I don't understand was that it was obvious that capital controls would have to be introduced with haircutting all depositors in the banking system (instead of just those in the failing banks). Surely if it was obvious to a troll in a cave in Tullamore, it would be obvious to the ECB, the Commission, the FinMins and all their assorted highly paid lackeys?


Is it really member state capital controls, if a bank decides that it can't meet the obligation of its withdrawals, and stops outgoing payments? Like I get that member states can't impose capital controls, but is Cypress really imposing this? Surely its the banks themselves no? Admittedly with the help of Government, but they are stopping outgoing payments to anywhere, not just other member states. Edit - isn't the problem that there isn't anything to control?

Although there's an interesting Der Spiegel article which mentions this

Quote:
According to the report, the ECB also wants to regulate capital flows even if Cyprus comes to an agreement with the troika over the terms of a bailout early next week. "The is a great danger there will be a run on the banks when they reopen next week," an ECB source told the newspaper. The paper said the ECB plans to implement the controls in a way that will ensure that all citizens of Cyprus are given access to the money they need to live and that payments of pensions and other social services will continue.

Handelsblatt notes that the Lisbon Treaty governing the EU includes provisions allowing limits on the free flow of capital across the bloc. Limits in the interest of "public security" are permitted, it notes, and a country doesn't even require permission from Brussels to implement them.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 90394.html

The same article also has a quote from Merkel, which is at odds to what we were allowed do with our pension reserve fund.
Quote:
For her part, Merkel opposes any plan that would tap Cypriot pension funds in order to fix the country's banking problems. Participants in the meeting quoted Merkel as saying that EU social principles could not be abandoned.


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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:18 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Tyler wrote:
In many ways similar to wind up of Anglo here governments and regulatory authorities and now the EU adopt a "needs must approach" to law - effectively there is no law where it is an inconvenience to the powers that be and they can suspend it or set it aside completely

consequences of that are quite frightening

No, a similar thing here would be that depositors in all banks and credit unions took a haircut when Anglo was wound up. It is not just the setting aside of law; it is the setting aside of, eh, natural law if you like and all common sense. That is what is scary.


All those Civics lessons aren't worth a flyin' fiddlers now or maybe this is the new civics lesson of the Euro :nin

I was re-reading the Automatics Earth 40 ways to lose your future last night it's all starting to look rather prescient. When I read it initially a few years ago I dismissed it as doomer porn but now ...

Quote:
Stoneleigh: People have been asking how we see the future unfold. In case you wonder what we stand for, much of our view of what's to come can be found in the primers on the right-hand side bar. Here is an additional brief summary (in no particular order and not meant to be exhaustive) of the ground we have consistently covered here at TAE over the last year and a half, and before that elsewhere.

1. Deflation is inevitable due to Ponzi dynamics (see From the Top of the Great Pyramid)
2. The collapse of credit will crash the money supply as credit is the vast majority of the effective money supply
3. Cash will be king for a long time
4. Printing one's way out of deflation is impossible as printing cannot keep pace with credit destruction (the net effect is contraction)
5. Debt will become a millstone around people's necks and bankruptcy will no longer be possible at some point
6. In the future the consequences of unpayable debt could include indentured servitude, debtor's prison or being drummed into the military
7. Early withdrawls from pension plans will be prevented and almost all pension plans will eventually default
8. We will see a systemic banking crisis that will result in bank runs and the loss of savings
9. Prices will fall across the board as purchasing power collapses
10. Real estate prices are likely to fall by at least 90% on average (with local variation)
11. The essentials will see relative price support as a much larger percentage of a much smaller money supply chases them
12. We are headed eventually for a bond market dislocation where nominal interest rates will shoot up into the double digits
13. Real interest rates will be even higher (the nominal rate minus negative inflation)
14. This will cause a tsunami of debt default which is highly deflationary
15. Government spending (all levels) will be slashed, with loss of entitlements and inability to maintain infrastructure
16. Finance rules will be changed at will and changes applied retroactively (eg short selling will be banned, loans will be called in at some point)
17. Centralized services (water, electricity, gas, education, garbage pick-up, snow-removal etc) will become unreliable and of much lower quality, or may be eliminated entirely
18. Suburbia is a trap due to its dependence on these services and cheap energy for transport
19. People with essentially no purchasing power will be living in a pay-as-you-go world
20. Modern healthcare will be largely unavailable and informal care will generally be very basic
21. Universities will go out of business as no one will be able to afford to attend
22. Cash hoarding will continue to reduce the velocity of money, amplifying the effect of deflation
23. The US dollar will continue to rise for quite a while on a flight to safety and as dollar-denominated debt deflates
24. Eventually the dollar will collapse, but that time is not now (and a falling dollar does not mean an expanding money supply, ie inflation)
25. Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing in a positive feedback spiral, so both are likely to be protracted
26. There should be no lasting market bottom until at least the middle of the next decade, and even then the depression won't be over
27. Much capital will be revealed as having been converted to waste during the cheap energy/cheap credit years
28. Export markets will collapse with global trade and exporting countries will be hit very hard
29. Herding behaviour is the foundation of markets
30. The flip side of the manic optimism we saw in the bubble years will be persistent pessimism, risk aversion, anger, scapegoating, recrimination, violence and the election of dangerous populist extremists
31. A sense of common humanity will be lost as foreigners and those who are different are demonized
32. There will be war in the labour markets as unempoyment skyrockets and wages and benefits are slashed
33. We are headed for resource wars, which will result in much resource and infrastructure destruction
34. Energy prices are first affected by demand collapse, then supply collapse, so that prices first fall and then rise enormously
35. Ordinary people are unlikely to be able to afford oil products AT ALL within 5 years
36. Hard limits to capital and energy will greatly reduce socioeconomic complexity (see Tainter)
37. Political structures exist to concentrate wealth at the centre at the expense of the periphery, and this happens at all scales simultaneously
38. Taxation will rise substantially as the domestic population is squeezed in order for the elite to partially make up for the loss of the ability to pick the pockets of the whole world through globalization
39. Repressive political structures will arise, with much greater use of police state methods and a drastic reduction of freedom
40. The rule of law will replaced by the politics of the personal and an economy of favours (ie endemic corruption)

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:46 pm 
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Ireland:

Rule 40? - Check!

It's an interesting read. The idea of resource was was apparent to me in my mid teens. It kind of haunted me a bit. The wars will be predicated greater ignorance which means they can be averted as nearly that entire list. Not saying those in the centre of the powers hub won't do their damdest to check off all the points on that list be they aware of it's existence or not! :?

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:50 pm 
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Posts: 3537
Reports of deal done.


fiatcurrency ‏@fiatcurrency

*GUINDOS SAYS CYPRUS ACCEPTED PLAN TO TAX GUARANTEED DEPOSITS"

Edit - this is interesting:

Quote:
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 1m

For the benefit of GETCO's algos, Guindos was talking about the past: Guindos says Cyprus endorsed last week’s plan which was then rejected


Last edited by onestepbehind on Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:56 pm 
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Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1918
Open Window wrote:
Ireland:

Rule 40? - Check!

It's an interesting read. The idea of resource was was apparent to me in my mid teens. It kind of haunted me a bit. The wars will be predicated greater ignorance which means they can be averted as nearly that entire list. Not saying those in the centre of the powers hub won't do their damdest to check off all the points on that list be they aware of it's existence or not! :?


Makes you think that finding oil or some other scarce natural resource now could be a curse rather than a blessing for future generations.

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:25 pm 
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Second proposal - what it entails to be put the floor @6pm GMT
Last one lasted 2 hours
Id expect some fiery scenes but MPs likely to be cowered but the events of the last week.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013 ... ussia-vote

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 Post subject: Re: Cyprus would seek EU bailout money 'if necessary
PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:38 pm 
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I have decided to favour the newer thread this time so all Cyrpus discussion can continue there.

Please continue here >>> viewtopic.php?f=19&t=58266&p=692523#p692523

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