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 Post subject: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:13 pm 
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The Sunday Times (21st July) is reporting "a series of heated arguments" between Minsters Noonan and Howlin and their counterparts in the Trioka regarding the next budget.
Quote:
The exchanges are said to have been so furious that on one occasion the two Irish ministers said there was little point in continuing the meeting and left the room. Officials in the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (PER) sought clearance from Howlin the next day before resuming discussions with the troika of the EU, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank.


The question is; are these actions just for show or do they reveal possible tensions within the Government coalition on how (and potentially whether to continue with) the budgetary correction programme?

Blue Horseshoe

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:21 am 
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Blue Horseshoe wrote:
The Sunday Times (21st July) is reporting "a series of heated arguments" between Minsters Noonan and Howlin and their counterparts in the Trioka regarding the next budget.

The question is; are these actions just for show or do they reveal possible tensions within the Government coalition on how (and potentially whether to continue with) the budgetary correction programme?

Blue Horseshoe


I've no inside track on this, but I'd guess "yes, for show".

Handy the way the credit for standing up to the Troika is split between the two parties, and is not associated with the leaders but rather with senior lieutenants.

Who for showing to may be unclear. Public: probably. Troika: maybe. Clearly FG/Lab don't want to administer the Troika medecine, and they've wasted so much time p!ssing around the margins of the problem that time runs out for them to do something significant and not get absolutely hammered in next election allowing successors to reap the rewards.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:52 am 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
Clearly FG/Lab don't want to administer the Troika medecine, and they've wasted so much time p!ssing around the margins of the problem that time runs out for them to do something significant and not get absolutely hammered in next election allowing successors to reap the rewards.


Which is why there should have been an emergency budget 90 days into the government. then you've almost the full 5 years to allow Irish people's goldfish like memories to kick in

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:57 am 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
I've no inside track on this, but I'd guess "yes, for show".

Handy the way the credit for standing up to the Troika is split between the two parties, and is not associated with the leaders but rather with senior lieutenants.

Who for showing to may be unclear. Public: probably. Troika: maybe.
Nah. Nothing to be gained from grandstanding in the middle of July. I reckon the Irish Government are running out of rope now that the Bailout growth miracle never happened and the Troika are insisting that we hold the line.

Quote:
Clearly FG/Lab don't want to administer the Troika medicine, and they've wasted so much time p!ssing around the margins of the problem that time runs out for them to do something significant and not get absolutely hammered in next election allowing successors to reap the rewards.
+1.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:59 am 
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Renting And Proud! wrote:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
Clearly FG/Lab don't want to administer the Troika medecine, and they've wasted so much time p!ssing around the margins of the problem that time runs out for them to do something significant and not get absolutely hammered in next election allowing successors to reap the rewards.


Which is why there should have been an emergency budget 90 days into the government. then you've almost the full 5 years to allow Irish people's goldfish like memories to kick in


Had they done this and lifted the lid on the guarantee/banking scandals ala the anglo tapes while the harshest cuts were made and cut their own pay significantly they could of lumped the blame squarely on those responsible and made it through themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:09 am 
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What happened to that 'First 90 days'?


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:50 pm 
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It's hard to imagine what leverage the Irish ministers think they have in these "negotiations". I can only imagine that the conversation went something like this:

Noonan "Give us more money."
Howlin: "Also we're going to have a giveaway budget!"
IMF: "No."
Noonan: "We're going to storm out of de room!"
IMF: "OK" (orders more biscuits and reads the paper)

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:45 pm 
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What date is the Budget?

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:14 pm 
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temene wrote:
What date is the Budget?



Noonan said in April that it would be "on or before the 15th October".


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:34 pm 
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Exchequer Returns: Tax revenues of €23bn on target end August, up on last year - -> http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 48561.html

Quote:
An Exchequer deficit of €7.3bn was recorded at the end of the month, which represented an improvement of €4bn compared with the same period last year.

The main drivers of this were the part-sale of Bank of Ireland, the sale of Irish Life, better tax income and decreased spending.

Still, the economy is not out of the woods yet and it is not known whether the Government will take the full targeted €3.1bn out of the economy in October’s budget or use the wriggle room created by €1bn Anglo promissory notes deal to deliver some relief to hard-pressed taxpayers.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan has said the Government is stuck on the €3.1bn target although there are growing expectations that there could be a slight ease-up on cash-strapped purses in the budget.

The figures also include a €653m increase in the servicing of the national debt to €5.4bn – this reflects an increase in the national debt and the first payment of the special Anglo bonds that replaced the promissory note.


there is more


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:21 am 
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I don't see how this is sustainable.

Debt clock says Ireland has 170billion national debt.
http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Irish bond yield is supposedly around 4% at the moment and higher rates are being paid on some of the debt out there.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland ... bond-yield

170 billion debt at 4% to service is 6.8 billion of tax take gone straight away every year.

170 billion can't be cleared and is actually increasing as the government is running a deficit every year.

Is the Irish government hoping to play a confidence trick on international investors and get the bond yield down to a managable 2% or what?

Is Ireland too far gone? The debt seems to be unmanagable.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:25 am 
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dipole wrote:
Is Ireland too far gone? The debt seems to be unmanagable.

It does rather look like we are up sheet crick, but there is a school of thought out there that everybody who matters understands that that debt will never be repaid in its totality. The logic is that we will have some of the debt written off and recovery will ensue. It was discussed before in this thread; the 'so fucked, we're fine' hypothesis.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:13 am 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
dipole wrote:
Is Ireland too far gone? The debt seems to be unmanagable.

It does rather look like we are up sheet crick, but there is a school of thought out there that everybody who matters understands that that debt will never be repaid in its totality. The logic is that we will have some of the debt written off and recovery will ensue. It was discussed before in this thread; the 'so fucked, we're fine' hypothesis.


I've never understood that point of view. Does the Troika's behaviour over the last couple of years sound like there's any mood for forgiving Irish debt? The IMF might be a tad more sympathetic but they've been overruled. When it comes to the crunch and we can't pay we may have to default, but you can be sure the place will be asset stripped and run into the ground first.

I don't think it'll be as simple as sticking up a few "Brehon Law spear of inspiration" posters at Dublin Airport for the visiting econocrats.

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:45 am 
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It is absolutely unpayable. Most sovereigns can't (and never will) repay their debt, they'll roll it forever. Unless it's in a fixed exchange rate system... like the Euro! So we either leave the Euro or the ECB grows a brain and tells Germany to get out because we are going to fund deficits with our infinite balance sheet. If that doesn't happen then Ireland is certain to default. How people still can't grasp this reality, while looking all the while at Japan's enormous debt ratios - but 0% rates and 3% unemployment - I don't know.

So, essentially, we are either: Detroit (and screwed); or Japan (and fine).

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2014
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:17 am 
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Daniel Plainview wrote:
It is absolutely unpayable. Most sovereigns can't (and never will) repay their debt, they'll roll it forever. Unless it's in a fixed exchange rate system... like the Euro! So we either leave the Euro or the ECB grows a brain and tells Germany to get out because we are going to fund deficits with our infinite balance sheet. If that doesn't happen then Ireland is certain to default. How people still can't grasp this reality, while looking all the while at Japan's enormous debt ratios - but 0% rates and 3% unemployment - I don't know.

So, essentially, we are either: Detroit (and screwed); or Japan (and fine).

Fair point, Daniel - it would of course be more accurate to talk about the national debt being unsustainable as it snowballs faster than we can grow the economy.


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