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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 1:04 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?


+ No real genuine leadership material within ranks.
+ Social grooming by politicians and their sweeties aided by a complicit EU makes for apathy much.
+ Unacknowledged damage done by losing a third generation of native born children. Lots of people, never coming back.
+ Those still here left detailing with the economic and social fallout, now tired and worn out.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 1:31 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?


They had Stephen Donnelly who was very good in the last leadership debate. Punched way about his weight - but now he's in FF so the SocDems have two co-leaders nearing the end of their time. They need to get at least three or four new faces in the Dail next time around or they may fold up the tent. Really, they need to have seven TDs, get speaking rights and eclipse Labour, otherwise they should just join Labour after the election - indeed, if Lab don't have seven seats that could well be the only option for both.

The other main explanation is SF. SDs were pretty close in some constituencies - e.g. Gary Gannon in Dublin Central. Very tough constituency though. Mary-Lou will get even more first prefs. Many will go to Christy Burke (Ind but ex-SF?). Maybe if Joe Costello or Maureen O'Sullivan retires, Gannon gets in.

I mention that constituency as it was the closest they came (from memory) to a 4th seat and there's no guarantee of a breakthrough there.

Question is whether SocDem's members (young/new ones not Shortall and Murphy) would join Alan Kelly's Labour (presuming he gets in again and is the next leader). Or maybe Labour fails to recover and their grassroots join SocDem (riskier). There's no room for both in the long run, especially with SF tip-toeing into the centre-left.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 12:53 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:

Question is whether SocDem's members (young/new ones not Shortall and Murphy) would join Alan Kelly's Labour (presuming he gets in again and is the next leader). Or maybe Labour fails to recover and their grassroots join SocDem (riskier). There's no room for both in the long run, especially with SF tip-toeing into the centre-left.


i vaguely recall something in the phoenix magazine about the relationship between SF and SDs, it wasnt pretty.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 5:25 pm 
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A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 5:36 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


Very astute observation. I had thought the date for the referendum was also designed to encourage a win scenario on many levels but particularly a nice sign off for many students (Friday polling day) looking forward to a summer vials while also affording the politicians a work-lite trajectory for their long summer recess as they bask in their progressive glory and maybe villa-it-up with a few of their Brave New World Buds having fought off the enemy at the gates.

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 pm 
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slasher wrote:
any thoughts as to why the SocDems haven't made a breakthrough in the polls?

That's him over there... Splitter!

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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 10:04 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
A few of the first-time ministers hit the two-year mark this week which qualifies them for mega-pensions. May as well stay in government while they can but if it all comes crashing down in June...ho hum...they are already golden. (I'm not usually so cynical but that was certainly a factor helping to focus minds during the Frances Fitzgerald crisis, judicial reform bill and other pressure points.)


I think it qualifies them not to have their first 2 years pension contribs returned like all PS/CS staff. There are certainly some aspects of political pensions which are quite/very generous but there isn't a transition on day 730 which suddenly makes you a zillionaire. I could however see it being a motivation to hang on beyond 2 years for sure.


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:34 pm 
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@Namawinelake predicting a general election in a few months
https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status ... 8722844672


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:52 pm 
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Does anybody believe the Fine Gael voters in Dublin Bay South care about homelessness (that much)? Who would they switch their preference to that would match their values and beliefs and also advocate for homeless better?


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 Post subject: Re: GE16 - Government Formation Watch
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:00 pm 
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SocDems, Greens, NationalParty

It's more to do with the accumulating scandals: Housing, Health, Garda, DoBrien, Water, Transport, Immigration is a biggie, endless Corruption etc etc

Just think, a certain person in a European country decided to run for office and basically destroyed the two main established parties by winning parliament and presidency. Il s'appelle Emmanuel.
Could something similar happen here?


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