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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:42 am 
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Just as an aside, why does Brexit or a rise in any anti immigration party have to be attributable to a swing to the hard right?

This is from Oxford:

Quote:
More than half (53%) of the increase of the UK population between 1991 and 2014 was due to the direct contribution of net migration.

In the principal projection the cumulative net inflow of post-2014 migrants accounts for half (51%) of total population growth until 2039. A further 17% of projected population growth is attributable to the additional contribution of new migrants to natural change (i.e. births and deaths)


In the UK it is straight forward and simple to understand. Why is it a shock to anyone that they chose this path? In retrospect we should all have seen this well in advance.
The UK is high density with lots of competition for housing and jobs. It has the smallest average dwelling sizes in the OECD

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8201900.stm
Image


In Ireland we have no jobs and a persistent property bubble in the only place you can get a job, Dublin. Why would things be all that much different politically?
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:53 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6259
Location: On the Road
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Just as an aside, why does Brexit or a rise in any anti immigration party have to be attributable to a swing to the hard right?

This is from Oxford:

Quote:
More than half (53%) of the increase of the UK population between 1991 and 2014 was due to the direct contribution of net migration.

In the principal projection the cumulative net inflow of post-2014 migrants accounts for half (51%) of total population growth until 2039. A further 17% of projected population growth is attributable to the additional contribution of new migrants to natural change (i.e. births and deaths)


In the UK it is straight forward and simple to understand. Why is it a shock to anyone that they chose this path? In retrospect we should all have seen this well in advance.
The UK is high density with lots of competition for housing and jobs. It has the smallest average dwelling sizes in the OECD

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8201900.stm
Image


In Ireland we have no jobs and a persistent property bubble in the only place you can get a job, Dublin. Why would things be all that much different politically?
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


Exactly.

Over the past decade, the 'progressive' left has not only captured the totality of left of the political sphere, but it has also constructed a narrative wholly based around cultural issues that for the most part is focussed on advancing the interests of 'progressives' (ie people like themselves) and ethnic/cultural minority groupings. The narrative was based on the premise that multi-cultural societies are based on a myriad of co-existing, independent, culturally specific groupings (on whose behalf the left consistently advocates), and whose interests, while 'intersecting' (see 'intersectionalism') in a number of areas, were essentially single issue campaigns striven for by people passionate about each of them in their own right....and supported and offered solidarity from 'allies' within each of the other single issue groupings on the broader left.

There was no focus whatsoever on economics as per traditional socialism/Marxism and the idea of class-based identity and the division of labour was abandoned. For example, more focus would have been paid to ensuring that multi-national corporations implement affirmative-action type programmes (seen as a victory if they do), than on examining the role that many of those same corporations play in exploiting workers across the board.

That the indigenous working classes of western countries would in time begin to adopt these same principles should have been obvious to anyone with a brain. The idea that they might deem themselves to have interests of their own and that they might at some point begin to express them at the ballot box shouldn't really come as a surprise to anyone. That their interests might not coincide with those living in hipsterville (very often their own (currently gentrified), former neighbourhood), again shouldnt really be that surprising. Nor should it be surprising that they would begin to vote for people who promise to advocate on their behalf....all they're doing is acting in the same manner as others on the left.....it just so happens that the left, in its current form, quite obviously no longer represents them.

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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:23 am 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4399
jmc wrote:
Read any of the interviews in the *French* media the last few months? The LR presidential candidate knock about has been a big story for the last few months. Some attempt has been made to cover the PS candidate jockeying with some attention but its a losing battle considering how irrelevant they are for the second round. Sometimes the anglophone media does cover a bit more than the big events but rarely covers the day to day stuff. Which is were all the fine details are.

If you want evidence trying reading the stories in Le Figaro, Le Point, L'Express and Liberation the last month or so. They go into forensic detail. Or even watch the debate. It should be easy to find on the TF1 site. If you want your "evidence" in anglophone media you are not going to find it. It would be a bit like trying to find nuanced coverage of Irish politics in the US media. Not going to happen.

werpen wrote:
No. I still can't find any. Im not going to listen to another political snore debate but again I haven't see or heard anything from fillon remotely hard right on immigration etc. Certainly to the hard right economical and very conservative. He's a bit of a non entity but may win the nomination but hes no Sarkozy or Le Pen.


And I'm not going to trawl through the French media looking for the pull quotes you are looking for. Watch the bloody debate on Sunday night and listen carefully for the very precise usage of very certain phrases regarding "law abiding" Muslims and citizenship and laicite and the state. You may not get the drift but you can be very certain that everyone watching does.

You do know what the terms Thatcherite and Liberal mean in a French political context? Given what Juppe was throwing at Fillon yesterday in interview after interview you can be sure that what he was referring to was not economic but social. We'll see. But the way things work in France at the moment is that what Sarkozy said in public is what a lot of the more "moderate" LR voters are thinking in private. If the non FN candidate can finesse Sarkozys immigration message into a form that the "moderates" can accept then they are in. Otherwise its Marine.

The people I talk to on a daily basis live very much in France Profonde. Very much the real France. I've noticed that ex-pat French tend towards the 75'ers and that ilk. Very much urban and more bien pensant. More likely to read Liberation and Le Monde than L'Equipe and papers like Ouest France. Which is what ordinary people read. Expats never accurately reflect the home country. Just saying.


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:38 am 
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Posts: 5358
jmc wrote:
Expats never accurately reflect the home country. Just saying.

Yeah, but we don't hold it against you.

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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:28 pm 
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GameBlame wrote:
In the same way that Catholic doctrine has changed since Nietzsche's time so has typical atheism. You would associate current atheism with post-Christian liberal scientific rational thinkers, who would tend not to be racist.

I think Friedrich's ramblings about phrenology serve the point that he is not a modern atheist in the way Pope Nick is not a modern Catholic. Why point to either of them ?

A Catholic Racist party would be seeking to wear the Catholic label as a badge. But would of course be incoherent.

An Atheist Racist party seeking to wear Atheism as a badge while pointing to 19th century science would be incoherent

Seems to me to be dangerously missing the point. There has never been,and never can be, a scientific basis for (the strong version of) atheism, whether it's 19th century or 21st century science. Your "liberal scientific rational thinkers" delude themselves if they think that their atheism is more justified because their science is more up to date. They are even more deluded if they think it is a philosophical basis for some sort of middle-of-the-road vaguely leftie moral outlook. But then it's normal for the prevailing cultural outlook to seek to show that it is not just a trend, but part of the natural order of things. That sort of confidence then leads to the horror, disbelief, and downright incomprehension that the liberal secular establishment shows to the rise of the new right (or whatever it is that is rising ... damned if I know).

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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:40 pm 
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Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Just as an aside, why does Brexit or a rise in any anti immigration party have to be attributable to a swing to the hard right?

This is from Oxford:

Quote:
More than half (53%) of the increase of the UK population between 1991 and 2014 was due to the direct contribution of net migration.

In the principal projection the cumulative net inflow of post-2014 migrants accounts for half (51%) of total population growth until 2039. A further 17% of projected population growth is attributable to the additional contribution of new migrants to natural change (i.e. births and deaths)


In the UK it is straight forward and simple to understand. Why is it a shock to anyone that they chose this path? In retrospect we should all have seen this well in advance.
The UK is high density with lots of competition for housing and jobs. It has the smallest average dwelling sizes in the OECD

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8201900.stm
Image


In Ireland we have no jobs and a persistent property bubble in the only place you can get a job, Dublin. Why would things be all that much different politically?
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


Maybe this comments should be in the sloppy journalism thread where an apparently reputable news source parrotted an incorrect number without factchecking.

The figures for average unit size for Ireland are wrong. The 88 square metres applies to the average unit size for apartments for which planning permissions were granted in Q2 of 2016 alone – see the CSO data in BHQ05: Planning Permissions Granted for New Houses and Apartments by Type of Dwelling, Quarter and Statistic http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0

In Q2 2016, planning permissions were granted for 2,340 houses with an average floor area of 180.3 square metres and 801 apartments with an average floor area of 88 square metres giving an average unit size of 156.95 square metres across both unit types.

I would have thought these house and apartment sizes compare favourably with at least those in the rest of Europe. The US and Canada would be different because of the slightly larger house sizes.

Also, the bare numbers would need more analysis to understand if property sizes for some countries include basements which are pervasive in the US and Canada for houses but almost non-existent in Ireland. So the same plot size might yield a large house size for this reason.

These numbers apply to the entire country are so are not broken out by urban and rural areas or for specific locations.

I can only assume that the same error applies to the UK average property sizes and that the number quoted refers to apartments only.

There are demographic changes and other factors in the UK that are driving the construction of large numbers of small apartments such as the high divorce rate in later life leading to the need for new accommodation for single people.

It is unlikely that the numbers for the US apply to apartments only. I have stayed in some very very small apartments in some of the larger US cities.

If you are really interested, the average unit sizes from 1977 onwards are listed below. There is a gap in the data from 1999Q1 to 2000Q2.

Code:
Quarter          House Size  Apartment Size       Unit Size
1977Q1                 105.1            87.3           104.6
1977Q2                   104            62.3           103.4
1977Q3                   106            60.5           104.2
1977Q4                 107.2            67.7           105.5
1978Q1                 110.3            75.4           108.9
1978Q2                 114.3            58.3           113.8
1978Q3                 111.2              72           110.7
1978Q4                 109.1            77.6           106.3
1979Q1                   112            94.5           111.4
1979Q2                 114.8            63.3           107.2
1979Q3                   115            68.8           112.9
1979Q4                 118.8            87.7           116.0
1980Q1                 118.6            87.5           117.3
1980Q2                 118.6            86.5           116.1
1980Q3                 119.5           130.3           120.0
1980Q4                 118.9            98.6           117.7
1981Q1                 116.9            73.6           113.3
1981Q2                 115.4           100.7           114.8
1981Q3                 117.6            70.5           116.0
1981Q4                 121.9            76.9           116.8
1982Q1                 117.6            85.5           114.1
1982Q2                 117.3            67.4           114.4
1982Q3                 118.2            67.2           114.6
1982Q4                 113.1            69.4           108.7
1983Q1                 111.9            71.5           107.6
1983Q2                 116.2            66.7           111.0
1983Q3                 112.4            68.5           108.3
1983Q4                 109.1            58.2           102.2
1984Q1                 118.8            73.5           114.5
1984Q2                 115.1            65.1           108.6
1984Q3                 111.8            66.1           108.0
1984Q4                 106.4              60           102.2
1985Q1                 108.7            57.4           103.6
1985Q2                 110.2            62.6           103.8
1985Q3                 110.7            60.8           104.8
1985Q4                 106.4            59.3           101.8
1986Q1                 110.6            62.3           105.7
1986Q2                 117.7            42.1           113.6
1986Q3                 116.3            66.9           114.2
1986Q4                 107.6            67.7           104.0
1987Q1                 115.1            72.2           111.5
1987Q2                 118.8            56.1           116.0
1987Q3                 117.3            61.8           112.7
1987Q4                 123.4            70.1           121.3
1988Q1                 119.5            58.7           114.9
1988Q2                 125.5              92           123.2
1988Q3                   124            60.5           119.4
1988Q4                 122.2              57           118.5
1989Q1                 115.9              71           114.7
1989Q2                 120.5            67.1           117.1
1989Q3                 128.5              69           123.7
1989Q4                 123.6            61.4           117.9
1990Q1                   131            61.3           126.1
1990Q2                 128.3            65.1           120.1
1990Q3                 131.2            65.7           124.7
1990Q4                 130.2            64.9           122.6
1991Q1                 124.8              67           119.8
1991Q2                   129            63.7           123.8
1991Q3                 127.3              65           118.9
1991Q4                   126            65.1           117.5
1992Q1                 128.8            63.3           114.7
1992Q2                 128.1            60.8           117.5
1992Q3                 128.6            62.1           117.2
1992Q4                 125.3              60           116.1
1993Q1                 124.6            59.2           110.9
1993Q2                 121.4            61.3           109.0
1993Q3                 128.6            62.2           114.8
1993Q4                 129.4            56.2           112.0
1994Q1                 123.3            59.6           108.9
1994Q2                 131.6            60.6           114.2
1994Q3                 130.4            62.4           119.1
1994Q4                 131.3            62.8           113.1
1995Q1                 125.8            62.8           114.1
1995Q2                 127.8            60.8           111.7
1995Q3                   131            68.4           120.9
1995Q4                 133.7            69.5           119.5
1996Q1                 119.8            69.4           111.0
1996Q2                 129.1            69.6           118.6
1996Q3                 131.4            63.2           125.1
1996Q4                 130.9            70.3           120.4
1997Q1                 132.6            74.8           119.5
1997Q2                 131.6            70.2           120.6
1997Q3                 145.4            69.2           130.3
1997Q4                   147            70.9           132.7
1998Q1                 138.5            71.6           128.8
1998Q2                 136.4            64.7           123.7
1998Q3                 143.4            70.5           133.0
1998Q4                 138.3            71.8           127.4
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3                 142.1            78.7           128.9
2000Q4                   147            71.7           133.1
2001Q1                 147.2            78.3           128.6
2001Q2                 149.2            77.4           132.7
2001Q3                 153.4            79.4           138.8
2001Q4                 146.6            77.9           133.0
2002Q1                 144.7            79.9           128.0
2002Q2                 138.1            75.7           122.3
2002Q3                 144.5            77.2           126.9
2002Q4                 149.1            79.2           129.0
2003Q1                 153.9            80.6           132.1
2003Q2                 144.3            80.8           121.3
2003Q3                 141.4            78.4           115.5
2003Q4                 151.4            78.3           124.9
2004Q1                 147.1            77.4           124.2
2004Q2                 148.5            74.2           127.6
2004Q3                 150.9            78.3           129.0
2004Q4                 144.8            76.6           120.9
2005Q1                 148.6            75.7           130.1
2005Q2                 145.2            80.4           129.7
2005Q3                 151.5            79.6           134.1
2005Q4                 152.1            76.7           135.7
2006Q1                 152.2            79.8           132.7
2006Q2                 160.7            77.5           142.9
2006Q3                 161.7            84.5           141.7
2006Q4                 161.3            82.2           145.7
2007Q1                 161.8            82.3           142.9
2007Q2                 160.3            82.7           141.6
2007Q3                 164.8            85.1           142.1
2007Q4                 170.2            90.9           149.6
2008Q1                 164.7            83.8           141.7
2008Q2                 177.7              86           143.9
2008Q3                 165.9            87.9           146.7
2008Q4                 165.5            83.9           145.4
2009Q1                 164.5            97.4           145.9
2009Q2                 164.5            91.7           135.6
2009Q3                 179.6            94.9           147.8
2009Q4                 193.4              87           161.2
2010Q1                 186.2            84.5           150.6
2010Q2                   180            97.6           144.3
2010Q3                   196            91.6           154.9
2010Q4                 204.4            90.4           173.6
2011Q1                 171.7           109.2           161.7
2011Q2                 187.3            98.9           168.3
2011Q3                 206.4           117.5           183.9
2011Q4                 196.3            87.9           165.1
2012Q1                 212.4            80.8           203.0
2012Q2                   220           101.8           199.9
2012Q3                 196.1            85.1           189.3
2012Q4                 199.4            92.5           174.5
2013Q1                 185.7           102.1           169.4
2013Q2                 187.1           116.9           171.3
2013Q3                 212.6            76.6           197.3
2013Q4                 193.6            93.6           183.2
2014Q1                 204.6            96.9           193.9
2014Q2                   190            84.9           182.4
2014Q3                 185.2            86.9           168.4
2014Q4                 184.5            85.3           177.4
2015Q1                 180.6            97.2           162.5
2015Q2                   180            99.7           167.8
2015Q3                 178.6            89.2           166.8
2015Q4                 174.7            94.2           149.4
2016Q1                 175.7            90.1           160.1
2016Q2                 180.3              88           157.0


The numbers also do not include developments that do not need (or did not get) planning permission. These numbers would be very small and are probably not relevant.

It is always better to go to the closest original sources of information rather than take other people’s word.

Planning permissions for houses are currently at close to the lowest level since the series started. This means there is no short-term pipeline of new houses that will be available in the next two or so years. So much for a government looking to target FDI and to getting additional employment from the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

Meanwhile Simon the Useless Coveney dithers about getting more properties built and is looking for another study. Clearly his smarter brother got the decision-making gene.

He wants an “independent audit of house-build costs” - http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics ... -1.2872771

Quote:
We need to benchmark against cost of building houses in other parts of Europe.


Why? What value or purpose will this have? How will it assist decision-making or policy development? What meaningful contribution will such information make?

The SCSI could provide this information immediately - https://www.scsi.ie/policy_research/indices.

Coveney just wants to delay making a decision while hoping the property market fixes itself. This is not going to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:54 am 
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Joined: Dec 2, 2013
Posts: 2688
Check the Greencore share price when Coveneys brother took over and what it was before recent increases. Pretty static.

I think The SCSI build costs do not show comparisons for Ireland and its competitors for items such as
- central government's tax take from each house
- local councils planning costs and contributions
- collective agreement costs in wage rates
- utility connection costs

Coveney is positioning himself for leadership. He needs as much ammunition as possible as to why he hasn't "fixed" this. And repeat how happy Leo was to escape health portfolio.

Does anyone think we should have a Property Regulator like we have a Financial Regulator ? Appoint that floppy haired guy from Daft.ie and see what happens !


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:59 am 
Offline
Real Estate Developer

Joined: Nov 20, 2014
Posts: 994
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


Wait what?

Irish population increased something like 60% since we joined the EU

1971 > 2,978,248 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census ... _V1_T1.pdf ]
2016 > 4,757,976 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016r ... aryreport/]

If house building in the same period did not keep pace then ...


Last edited by satechi on Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:09 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4399
Eschatologist wrote:
jmc wrote:
Expats never accurately reflect the home country. Just saying.

Yeah, but we don't hold it against you.


Ah, what passes for Irish pub "wit" and "humour". The gobshite in the corner nursing his half pint for the whole evening makes another lame attempt at a humourous interjection. To which the only reply is the traditional - tosser.


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:17 pm 
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Nationalised

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 8890
Location: Hollywood
satechi wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


Wait what?

Irish population increased something like 60% since we joined the EU

1971 > 2,978,248 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census ... _V1_T1.pdf ]
2016 > 4,757,976 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016r ... aryreport/]

If house building in the same period did not keep pace then ...


The replacement rate would have caused a decreasing population since 1992 if there was no immigration
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... _per_woman)_YB16.png

In the UK they it has been since 1974
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explor ... &ind=false

Why increase the population when the locals cant afford to even maintain the current population?


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:32 pm 
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Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1925
Anti muslim and anti EU Wilders getting real traction at the moment

Quote:
Geert Wilders on Track to Become Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands


https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/11/27 ... -minister/

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:50 pm 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Oct 29, 2007
Posts: 11761
Location: Multiverse
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
satechi wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Property should have continuously decreased in value due to below replacement level birth rates.


Wait what?

Irish population increased something like 60% since we joined the EU

1971 > 2,978,248 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census ... _V1_T1.pdf ]
2016 > 4,757,976 people [source: http://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016r ... aryreport/]

If house building in the same period did not keep pace then ...


The replacement rate would have caused a decreasing population since 1992 if there was no immigration


Excluding immigration but including emigration ?


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:54 pm 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Oct 29, 2007
Posts: 11761
Location: Multiverse
werpen wrote:
Anti muslim and anti EU Wilders getting real traction at the moment

Quote:
Geert Wilders on Track to Become Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands


https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/11/27 ... -minister/


Will he be able to canvass from jail ?
The Netherlands is venturing down a rabbit hole.


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:27 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3597
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
They are very very very quiet.

Considering Europe is shifting, with anti-immigration govts in AT, DK, CZ, PL, HU, SK. Strong votes in NL, FR, DE, IT, SE, FI, GR, etc.
Why no similar party making waves in Ireland?


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 Post subject: Re: New nationalist, anti-immigration party launches in Irel
PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:42 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 6005
Location: SthDub
temene wrote:
They are very very very quiet.

Considering Europe is shifting, with anti-immigration govts in AT, DK, CZ, PL, HU, SK. Strong votes in NL, FR, DE, IT, SE, FI, GR, etc.
Why no similar party making waves in Ireland?

Lack of a charismatic leader so far.
And possibly also the fact that so many Irish have had family members emmigrate abroad. Though you could say the same for Poles in the past 20 years and yet they have seen a rise in votes for the right.


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