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 Post subject: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:15 am 
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What you need to know about the German electorate - -> http://www.dw.com/en/what-you-need-to-k ... a-40196296





Germany election: Martin Schulz profile - -> http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/g ... 25311.html

Quote:
Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, is used to winning elections.
After a long, successful career in politics, Schulz decided to resign his post in Brussels in November 2016 and return to his native Germany to contest the chancellorship in this year's federal election, to be held on Sunday.
Recent polling suggests the Schulz-led Social Democratic Party (SPD) will win 22 percent of the vote, 14 percent less than Angela Merkel - who is running for a fourth consecutive term as chancellor - and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party.

there is more


The Rise and Fall of Leftist Populism in Germany - -> https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... sm/539088/

Quote:
If populism is to be viable for the European left, it will mean taking on the interests of big business and the current political elite, as argue the followers of the political scientists Chantal Mouffe and the late Ernesto Laclau. “Europe’s recent success of populist forms of politics is the expression of a crisis of liberal-democratic politics,” Mouffe argued. The way to beat the far right, she claimed, is with “a progressive populist movement that is receptive to democratic aspirations and orientates them toward a defense of equality and social justice.”

Instead, Schulz and the SPD played it safe. In the end, it will probably just land them in another grand coalition with Merkel’s CDU, and Martin Schulz as Germany’s new foreign minister. Germany’s leftist potential will go untapped, again. And the longer the SPD opts for the grand coalition led by the conservatives, the trickier it will be to distinguish itself from the CDU. The prospect of the SDP or another leftist party ever coming to power in Germany will fade into the indeterminate future.

there is more



AfD sets populist course for heart of German politics - -> https://www.ft.com/content/fa447d66-9d1 ... 2067fbf946

Quote:
They are the oddest couple in Germany politics. One is a 38-year-old lesbian management consultant, the other a tweed-wearing German nationalist twice her age.
But the double act of Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland is one of the big success stories of Germany’s 2017 election. They are the two top candidates of Alternative for Germany, a rightwing party that, when polls close on Sunday, could emerge as the biggest opposition force in the German Bundestag.
<snip>
By 2015, as the eurozone debt crisis eased, it was a busted flush. But Ms Merkel’s decision later that year to let in more than 1m refugees gave it a new lease of life. With its demands to curb asylum rights and close Germany’s borders, and its fiercely anti-Islamic rhetoric, it surged in the polls and now has seats in 13 of Germany’s 16 regional parliaments.

Winning representation in the Bundestag would mark a new phase in a long march from the fringes of German politics to the heart of power in Berlin. More broadly it would revive the spirits of European populist movements damped by Marine Le Pen’s defeat to Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election this year, and Geert Wilders’ disappointing 13 per cent score in the Dutch poll in March.

Some experts now wonder whether the AfD could do even better than opinion surveys suggest.
<snip>
The party has a massive presence on social media, with 362,000 Facebook followers, compared with the SPD’s 169,000 and CDU’s 154,000. Meanwhile, a study released this week found that the AfD drives more Twitter traffic than any other German party, and more even than non-partisan discussion of the election itself.

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In pictures: Keeping (some) AfD posters just out of reach - -> http://www.politico.eu/interactive/in-p ... -of-reach/

How Germany took in one million refugees but dodged a populist uprising - -> https://qz.com/1076820/german-election- ... ist-upset/


EU rebels Hungary and Poland reaffirm anti-immigrant alliance - -> https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/e ... -1.3230872

Quote:
Hungarian leader Viktor Orban targets George Soros ahead of re-election bid

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Poland could seek war reparations from Germany, say parliament researchers - -> http://www.politico.eu/article/poland-c ... searchers/

German states try to offload refugees on each other - -> https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/0 ... m-s06.html

Quote:
A year after the unveiling of the so-called welcoming culture, refugees are not only being rejected and deported en masse in Germany; German states are also offloading refugees on each other.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is frequently falsely portrayed as the initiator of the “welcoming culture,” has placed herself at the head of the offensive against refugees. At a meeting of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union parliamentary group executive in Berlin last Thursday, she declared that the priority now was to deport asylum seekers whose applications are rejected. “In the coming months, the most important thing is repatriation, repatriation and again repatriation,” Merkel declared.

In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), cities including Essen, Bochum, Dortmund and Gelsenkirchen have demanded that thousands of recognised refugees who have been living there for months return to Bavaria or states in eastern Germany, where their asylum applications were initially filed.



Varoufakis Describes How Merkel Sacrificed Greece to Save the Franco-German Banks - -> https://newsclick.in/varoufakis-describ ... rman-banks

German govt favours a Commerzbank-BNP Paribas merger -WirtschaftsWoche - -> https://www.reuters.com/article/commerz ... SL5N1M20HO


Expectation is that Merkel forms yet another coalition government. Her governments decisions in the last term particularly in regard to the massive economic migration wave that Germany unleashed to deflect attention from the EU sovereign debt crisis (especially refusing to allow Greece default) and its continuing efforts to offload the problems caused by this policy onto other EU states are probably going to be the basis for political conflict for the next few years as more national sovereignty political movements (PC speak "the far right") assert themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:31 pm 
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Angela Merkel is punished at the ballot box as far-right party enters parliament for the first time - but her party wins the largest share of votes - -> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ffice.html

Quote:
  • Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party won most votes with 32.5 per cent support, exit polls say
  • Far-right Alternative For Germany won 13.5 per cent and will enter the German parliament for the first time
  • Merkel's coalition partner, the SPD, polled at historic low and said they will not serve in the new government
  • SPD leader Martin Schulz admitted that decision to let in millions of migrants had divide the nation

there is more



Merkel’s dealmaking tested by German coalition choices - -> https://www.ft.com/content/162121b0-9c7 ... 2067fbf946

Quote:
Her favourite choice would be the FDP, which was in coalition with Ms Merkel between 2009 and 2013 and shares her pro-business agenda. “We are natural partners,” says a CDU Bundestag member.
But the two parties are unlikely to win enough seats between them for a secure coalition, in which case Ms Merkel’s simplest option would be to renew her workable if uncomfortable government with the SPD.
Ms Merkel’s bloodless television debate with Martin Schulz, the SPD leader, was widely cast as a prelude to a new “grand coalition”. However, many of the SPD rank and file who would vote on a deal oppose another Merkel-led coalition, saying it would spell electoral doom. “We need to go into opposition,” says one regional official. “We need to talk to the party base and re-establish ourselves as social democrats.”
Oskar Niedermayer, politics professor at Berlin’s Free university, says that if the SPD secures close to the 25.7 per cent it polled in 2013, the leaders could secure a coalition. If the vote is below 2009’s record low of 23 per cent, the party base would get its way, he believes.

there is more


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:48 pm 
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Schadenfreude. Pure Schadenfreude.

Its a long time since I laughed this much when the first closing polls came in.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-election-merkel-wins-and-afd-wins-seats-in-parliament-a-1169587.html

CDU/CSU lost almost one third of theirs seats. Absolutely catastrophic results for the CSU in Bavaria.

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/csu-bei-der-bundestagswahl-seehofer-erlebt-ein-debakel-1.3681435

SPD's lost one third of their seats. Now a rump party. Now only 50 seats ahead of AfD. The Greens and Die Linke (DDR Kommies) did badly. The sane party, the FDP's, are back around 70.

But the news of the night, the AfD, the party that said that maybe allowing in millions of illiterate muslim peasants was a very bad idea, is now the third largest party in the Bundestag. Around 90. Now where this get really interesting is that in large parts of Ossi-land (ex-DDR) AfD is now the second largest political party.

I think you have to go back to Henrich Bruning to find a Chancellor as incompetent as Merkel.

So I wonder how long the Ganja Coalition lasts.


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:38 pm 
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jmc wrote:
So I wonder how long the Ganja Coalition lasts.


:mrgreen:


geez, the greens in power in germany could be catastrophic for the whole of europe.

merkel & schulz, the original tweedledee and tweedledumb. why did schulz think he could win on an "i love the eu even more" platform?

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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:19 pm 
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On the occasion of his 75th birthday , what drives Wolfgang Schäuble? - [google translate] -> http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/w ... ageIndex_1

Quote:
The fact that he really had the idea with the European-Turkish refugee agreement, says Schäuble, then, that he had put African politics on his own agenda to the agenda of the World Economic Summit, or that he himself would loose more money for armaments because Europe now has to look after itself , And that people should not worry so much about such small things as low interest rates or the target billing rates in the European monetary union.

The hard dog at Merkel's side

Today Wolfgang Schäuble is 75 years old. When he applied for a mandate in the Bundestag for the first time in the "Willy-Wahl" in 1972, Ludwig Erhard, the father of the German economic miracle, was still in the Union. For the 13th time Schäuble is now running for the German parliament. He just goes on. Because he can not exist without politics, what he likes to wear into the formula, he does not want to get on his nerves to his wife. Because he still has the role of his life in the Ministry of Finance. And because he probably wants to push through his idea of ​​Europe in the next four years.

If a coalition partner does not dispute the office, it will probably happen. Almost eighty years old, he would then be at the end of the term of office, and it would also be a victory over all probability. He often shows enough that the remaining life expectancy of cross-paralysis was once eight years. His assassination is now 27 years.
<snip>
His hatred for the Greeks came from his idea of ​​Europe. If no one agreed, he was convinced that the continent would not be able to coalesce. This also depended on Schäuble's image of man: Man, he believes, is carved from curved wood. That's why he needs rules. Schäuble, the finance minister, does not argue much differently than before, Schäuble, the Minister of the Interior. And as the lawyer, who he is from home. Joachim Gauck, the then Federal President, named him a "friend of the state" on his 70th birthday five years ago.
Tax rate rose from 21.4 to 23.3 percent

In the controversy with Athens, Schäuble was dependent on the theory of the "infected leg": Only if Europe repelled the crises, it could recover permanently. His boss ended up with the "dominion": if Greece were to leave the euro, other states could follow. In 2015 the drama was repeated as a farce. Schäuble wanted to take the great risk of Grexit to weld the rest of Europe closer together. The proof that it had worked, he did not have to compete. In the refugee question, too, he criticized the Chancellor.

At home, the minister was less rigorous. Faster than other countries, Germany recovered from the financial crisis. This was due to the economic structure, to the Hartz reforms, but also to the debt problems around. The Federal Republic was regarded as the safe haven in an uncertain Europe, the minister paying almost no interest on his bonds. At first he managed to keep spending halfway stable despite rising revenues.

Since he has reached the "black zero", that is, no more new debts, the expenses rise again with bubbling revenues. For refugees, he makes money, for armaments or for Africa, as well as reserves. He contributed the expensive pension plans of the coalition. In relation to the social product, the debt ratio falls nevertheless because the economy is growing. In the next election period, the liabilities could even fall below the Maastricht limit of 60 per cent of GDP. Credit, Schäuble does not think. Since 2010 the tax rate has risen from 21.4 to 23.3 percent, the minister does not want them to lower them. The state capable of action is more important to him.


[google translate]


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:08 am 
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Nice breakdown of voting patterns. Very like the FN in France. Just like the FN did AfD are becoming the party of ordinary working class people.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-volksparteien-laufen-waehler-weg-afd-und-fdp-profitieren-a-1169611.html

Well thats the end of the Bundesrepublik as we knew it. I wonder what comes next. Its also the end of Junkers Federal Europe. The FDP are almost as ant-federalist as the AfD. Plus they want to rollback Draghis ECB printing presses.


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:21 pm 
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Looks like Jamaica is DOA..

https://www.socialeurope.eu/germany-happens-next

Quote:
The key question now is: What happens next? After the social democrats have (wisely, I think) opted for a role in the opposition, there will be an extended period of bargaining on coalition formation, with only one majority option remaining on the table: the black-yellow-green “Jamaica”. That option is likely to fail. Differences among the participants cannot possibly be bridged in stable ways. After all, the Greens would at the very least have to win the support of the majority of their membership constituency, which is hard to imagine. The next option is the formation of a black-yellow minority government. That would be without precedent in Germany at the federal level. But it will be tried, as new elections are unlikely to yield an easier-to-handle result, perhaps a worse one. Moreover, there are creeping succession leadership crises in both the CDU and CSU (if not SPD), plus looming divorce issues between the two Christian “sister” parties regarding the continuation of a joint faction in the Bundestag.


Plus this is the first time I've seen in English what has been talked about sotto voice in the German media for the last five years.

Quote:
Germany’s intransigence on economic cooperation and “leadership” (the opposite, nota bene, of domination) in Europe has structural causes in the German political economy: once described as “overindustrialized“, it still has an outsized manufacturing sector that employs 19% of the workforce (as opposed to 10% in the US and 9% in the UK). Maintaining a high level of manufacturing employment requires Germany to secure a trade surplus (of currently 8% GDP, twice the volume of China!). This can be done only if the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) regime remains stable, as the external value of the Euro is depressed by all the others that export less or import more than DE. Absent the Euro, from the presence of which Germany profits more than anyone else, German exports would become mostly non-competitive, as a new Deutschmark would dramatically appreciate, putting exports and export-dependent jobs into jeopardy. Without the Euro, the German economy would price itself out of markets for many manufactured goods. In order to keep export industries alive and prevent companies moving to low wage locations, Germany depends on wage restraint and other measures that ensure favorable unit costs of labor and productivity gains through process innovation. Other members of the Eurozone cannot improve their competitive position through the devaluation of their currency anymore; the EMU regime deprives them of their monetary sovereignty, thus leaving them with the only option of adjustment by “internal” devaluation.


By “internal” devaluation he means high unemployment and no economic growth for the "naughty" Eurozone countries in the foreseeable future.

Then there are the antics of companies like VW..

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eastern_resentment_of_germany_spells_trouble_for_berlin_and_brus

Quote:
One story which seems to be endlessly retold is that workers at the assembly lines at Volkswagen plants in the Czech Republic only earn a third of the wage of VW workers in Germany, even though the assembly lines run at the same speed at the ones in Wolfsburg. Hence, even though physical productivity of these Czech workers is supposedly the same as in Germany, wages are significantly lower. The value added thus extracted then can be distributed to German Volkswagen workers and shareholders – with alleged tacit support from the German government.


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:51 am 
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jmc wrote:
Looks like Jamaica is DOA..

https://www.socialeurope.eu/germany-happens-next

Quote:
The key question now is: What happens next? After the social democrats have (wisely, I think) opted for a role in the opposition, there will be an extended period of bargaining on coalition formation, with only one majority option remaining on the table: the black-yellow-green “Jamaica”. That option is likely to fail. Differences among the participants cannot possibly be bridged in stable ways. After all, the Greens would at the very least have to win the support of the majority of their membership constituency, which is hard to imagine. The next option is the formation of a black-yellow minority government. That would be without precedent in Germany at the federal level. But it will be tried, as new elections are unlikely to yield an easier-to-handle result, perhaps a worse one. Moreover, there are creeping succession leadership crises in both the CDU and CSU (if not SPD), plus looming divorce issues between the two Christian “sister” parties regarding the continuation of a joint faction in the Bundestag.


Plus this is the first time I've seen in English what has been talked about sotto voice in the German media for the last five years.

Quote:
Germany’s intransigence on economic cooperation and “leadership” (the opposite, nota bene, of domination) in Europe has structural causes in the German political economy: once described as “overindustrialized“, it still has an outsized manufacturing sector that employs 19% of the workforce (as opposed to 10% in the US and 9% in the UK). Maintaining a high level of manufacturing employment requires Germany to secure a trade surplus (of currently 8% GDP, twice the volume of China!). This can be done only if the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) regime remains stable, as the external value of the Euro is depressed by all the others that export less or import more than DE. Absent the Euro, from the presence of which Germany profits more than anyone else, German exports would become mostly non-competitive, as a new Deutschmark would dramatically appreciate, putting exports and export-dependent jobs into jeopardy. Without the Euro, the German economy would price itself out of markets for many manufactured goods. In order to keep export industries alive and prevent companies moving to low wage locations, Germany depends on wage restraint and other measures that ensure favorable unit costs of labor and productivity gains through process innovation. Other members of the Eurozone cannot improve their competitive position through the devaluation of their currency anymore; the EMU regime deprives them of their monetary sovereignty, thus leaving them with the only option of adjustment by “internal” devaluation.


By “internal” devaluation he means high unemployment and no economic growth for the "naughty" Eurozone countries in the foreseeable future.

Then there are the antics of companies like VW..

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eastern_resentment_of_germany_spells_trouble_for_berlin_and_brus

Quote:
One story which seems to be endlessly retold is that workers at the assembly lines at Volkswagen plants in the Czech Republic only earn a third of the wage of VW workers in Germany, even though the assembly lines run at the same speed at the ones in Wolfsburg. Hence, even though physical productivity of these Czech workers is supposedly the same as in Germany, wages are significantly lower. The value added thus extracted then can be distributed to German Volkswagen workers and shareholders – with alleged tacit support from the German government.


how right you were, sir.
the jamaican option is off. I;m sure that Germany will function very well without a government

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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:24 pm 
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jmc wrote:
Then there are the antics of companies like VW..

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eastern_resentment_of_germany_spells_trouble_for_berlin_and_brus

Quote:
One story which seems to be endlessly retold is that workers at the assembly lines at Volkswagen plants in the Czech Republic only earn a third of the wage of VW workers in Germany, even though the assembly lines run at the same speed at the ones in Wolfsburg. Hence, even though physical productivity of these Czech workers is supposedly the same as in Germany, wages are significantly lower. The value added thus extracted then can be distributed to German Volkswagen workers and shareholders – with alleged tacit support from the German government.

That's not really a German or VW phenomenon though, is it?
The way the story is presented is in any case incredibly sloppy undermining its apparent point.


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 Post subject: Re: German Elections 2017
PostPosted: Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:16 am 
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Bundesbank warns of German real estate bubble - -> http://www.dw.com/en/bundesbank-warns-o ... a-38702692

Quote:
A combination of low interest rates and banks hunting for yields could fuel a dangerous real estate bubble, a senior member of the German central bank has warned, urging banks and financial supervisors to be alert.

Due to mortgage interest rates of well below two percent, Germany has been experiencing a rapid transition towards home ownership in recent years, now creating fears familiar in many other property markets. Housing prices, which were relatively cheap compared with other European countries in the past, have risen sharply.

Real estate prices in cities like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Frankfurt have increased by more than 60 percent since 2010, according to recent estimates by the German central bank, the Bundesbank.

But while reflecting solid economic growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs, Bundesbank's chief banking supervisor Andreas Dombret warned on Thursday that the property market was close to overheating.

"The good news is that there is currently no real estate bubble that threatens financial stability in Germany. But the traffic light is clearly on yellow," Dombret told a conference in Frankfurt.

there is more


Germany’s property boom - -> http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-property-boom/a-39973513

Quote:
Jacopo Mingazzini leads one of Berlin’s largest real estate services companies, Accentro GmbH. He believes Germany needs to become a nation of homeowners, not tenants. Nina Haase and Sumi Somaskanda asked why.

Jacopo Mingazzini is the CEO of Accentro, a German real estate services firm specializing in renovating and re-selling existing real estate across Germany. Accentro caters to clients from across Germany and the world. Nina Haase and Sumi Somaskanda spoke with him about Germany's soaring property prices.

Deutsche Welle: Mr. Mingazzini, how have you witnessed the changes in Germany's real estate market?

Jacopo Mingazzini: The prices in big cities have risen sharply. It is essentially an automatic reaction to the falling interest rates. That trend has been very pronounced across the big cities, but has also been evident in every region in Germany.

there is more


Merkel promises full employment, less tax and more houses - -> https://www.independent.ie/business/wor ... 91541.html
July 4 2017

Quote:
Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives promised Germany more police, more homes and full employment within eight years, as they presented their programme yesterday for an election in which she hopes to win a fourth term in office.

With Europe's biggest economy growing robustly, Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), also committed to invest more but to not raise taxes. As the countdown to the September 24 ballot continues, they hold a clear opinion poll lead over the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) but would still need to team up with another party to govern.

Yesterday they added the goal of full employment - which they define as a jobless rate of less than 3pc - by 2025 to their list of pledges.

there is more



German property market rockets from safe haven to Ireland-grade crisis - -> https://www.irishtimes.com/business/con ... -1.3230496
Sep 23, 2017

Quote:
Enda Kenny’s visit to Berlin last week was different from his last few trips to the German capital. Instead of rushing in and out of meetings with chancellor Angela Merkel, the former taoiseach had time to see a bit of the city, in particular a building site on the banks of the River Spree.

“This is a very special location in Berlin,” he said, standing in front of two large cranes, before helping lower into the ground a time capsule. Among its contents: a St Brigid’s cross, and copies of The Irish Times and the Mayo News.

The latter was a nod to the developers behind Number 1 Charlottenburg: the Cannon family company from Mayo.

there is more



German rent-control law violates constitution, court rules - -> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ourt-rules

Quote:
One of the prestige projects of Angela Merkel’s outgoing coalition government has been thrown into doubt after a Berlin court ruled that a recently introduced rent-control law violates Germany’s constitution.

The so-called Mietpreisbremse or “rental price brake” was introduced two years ago with the aim of barring landlords in property hotspots from increasing rents by more than 10% above a local benchmark. In June 2015 Berlin became the first German state to implement the new regulation.

But just five days before Sunday’s federal elections the capital’s district court has ruled that the law is incompatible with the country’s constitution because it discriminates against some landlords.

there is more


Collapse of German coalition talks deals Merkel a blow; new election likely - -> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Quote:
While Merkel insisted that she would not step down, she also suggested that calling a new election would be preferable to leading a government that must survive vote-to-vote without a majority in the German parliament, the Bundestag.

“Germany needs a stable government,” she said.

Her comments indicated that without a change of heart from the center-left Social Democrats, who have resisted joining a new coalition, Germany is probably headed for a new election.

there is more


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