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 Post subject: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:57 am 
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So...


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:14 am 
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Leo has to be seen to support his Minister. Frances Fitzgerald will have to come over all patriotic and do the honorable thing on Sunday evening.
I'm not sure why SF are so eager to get an election going, can't see them increasing their share.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:18 am 
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http://www.thejournal.ie/leo-varadkar-p ... 7-Oct2017/
Quote:
According to the latest Irish Times/IPOS MRBI poll, almost half of voters (49%) say that they are satisfied with Varadkar, while 45% say he has had a positive impact on government performance....
So, FF precipice an election.
The government's handing of the McCabe issue may be cack-handed at best, but the frankly disgusting efforts of the Guards to smear McCabe is well known and hardly new.
My poor view of FF is hitting rock bottom.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:44 am 
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My understanding is that the Fianna Fail confidence motion has to be made by 11am or they miss the boat and the SF motion takes over.

The obvious solution is that Frances Fitzgerald resigns. That makes sense to everyone except Fine Gael. With Brexit meetings coming up it seems extraordinary to hold a gun to the country's head over an incompetent Tanaiste.

If Varadkar calls Fianna Fail's bluff and they back down with some kind of sop about an inquiry then it's a major victory for Varadkar. Interesting to see what happens either way.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:03 am 
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As per the other thread:

There were nearly 30 first-time TDs elected in 2016 among the supporters of the government.

All of them would be very nervous at facing re-election particularly because their pension rights only kick in after two years.

Elections are really expensive. Parties cannot raise large amounts of funds anymore and a campaign would flatten most of them.

I have always maintained and continue to do so that there will be no election until 2019 at the earliest.

This is just political journalists talking up a crisis because it makes them look like they're doing something useful.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:32 am 
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An election is a terrible idea at a terrible time. A new batch of ministers won't help Brexit, nor homelessness, hospitals or anything else.
FG should have the election immediately to be sure FF get the blame for ruining Christmas over something most people don't care about/understand.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:38 am 
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Magpie wrote:
Leo has to be seen to support his Minister. Frances Fitzgerald will have to come over all patriotic and do the honorable thing on Sunday evening.
I'm not sure why SF are so eager to get an election going, can't see them increasing their share.


Because that is what they do. It is all they know. Perhaps they see an opportunity in the chaos of Brexit, but chances are they are just stirring trouble for the sake of it.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:53 am 
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Remember that time Michael Martin didn't quite get legal advice (or so he said, even though it was in his office and people said it had been passed to him and it was quite important) on the legality of nursing home fees? He rode it out and threw the Sec Gen of the Dept of Health under the bus (well, shuffled him off to the Higher Education Authority will pay and pension).

And then there was the time Enda Kenny kinda made up a meeting and was all a bit confused, sparking his resignation - yet FF still had 'confidence'. Now this issue, at this time seem like a totally bonkers reason to pull the plug. I heard FF and SF on Prime Time trying to take the issue back to how McCabe had been wronged and that's why...we're having an election, or something.

Good luck on the door steps with that one.

Now that Varadkar has dug his heels in, it's hard to see how Frannie Fitz quitting could even fix things. Varadkar would lose face and relations with FF are damaged beyond repair - until one needs the other after the next election - in the national interest :)


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:18 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Now this issue, at this time seem like a totally bonkers reason to pull the plug

Yeah, I just don't get it. Aside from the issue itself which seems really quite minor, expressing no confidence in a someone when they've left the job is strange.

There are plenty of better things to express no confidence in, like the dismal state of the health service (it can't be long before the winter ED overcrowding kicks in), or housing policy, or or or.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:27 pm 
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FF have lodged the no confidence motion. Either frances goes by Sunday night or it's election time.
My money is on her going


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:45 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
FF have lodged the no confidence motion. Either frances goes by Sunday night or it's election time.
My money is on her going


FF: Opportunistic b@stards.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:48 pm 
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None of the parties can afford a snap election; financially, morally, politically or otherwise.
Ain't gonna happen.
It's just Dáil panto season again. Besides MickeyD would tell them to cop on and form a new government.

So who replaces Fitzgerald?
and further current Min Justice Charlie Flanagan is implicated in the Garda/McCabe scandals, what happens to him?


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:18 pm 
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I reckon FF got panicked by SF.

In previous opinion polls many older voters have said they'd consider voting SF if Adams was gone, his departure is now official. They lost a good chunk of their tradition vote to SF in the younger generation, around where I lived the FF households stayed true but their offspring went SF in the last election.

So when SF made a lightening strike with the no confidence vote, FF couldn't let SF have that public opinion victory.

FG aren't competing against SF so they're entirely right to close ranks and let FF take all the flak for collapsing the government. FF TDs will be panicking if FG call their bluff and have to go to the country. This panicked election could be the evisceration of the remnant FF.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:22 pm 
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An election plays into the hands of the English over Brexit. With no government in place, an Irish veto in December becomes unlikely, no?

Anyway, what's to stop the government from proposing a motion of confidence in the government and ignoring the motion of no confidence in the Tanaiste?

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:36 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
An election plays into the hands of the English over Brexit. With no government in place, an Irish veto in December becomes unlikely, no?

It would be a hearty laugh if a snap election delivered wee Jerry the Taoiseach seat as an early retirement present!

How would the Tories and their rabid media handle that!

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