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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 1927
In terms of timing, when would the election be if they manage to get the next budget through? I suppose they'd need to get the Finance Bill through and tie up other loose ends - social welfare bill etc., presuming there are updates.

If we have a Presidential Election in November 2018, would we jump straight from that into an early December election? I think this would connect the two votes far too closely, dragging the presidential debates into bread and butter issues, and forcing candidates to answer for the parties that nominate them. Imagine Miriam O'Callaghan having to get into the nitty gritty of FF's confidence and supply measures or Mairead McGuinness having to defend the housing situation. 'Twould be unbecoming, don't you know?

Makes more sense to kick it into Jan/Feb 2019. Or for FF to pull the plug before the summer if they think it would benefit them. However, that moment might never arise so I'd go with election posters on lampposts this time next year.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:19 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3646
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
I don't see it happening soon given that we have
a controversial abortion referendum, another 6 due
a Pope's visit,
more Brexit economic difficulties,
housing crisis to worsen until 2020,
there are local elections in June 2019,
Most important: FF & FG would not increase their vote share/seats much.
etc.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:00 pm 
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Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 1927
Forgot about the local/European elections - they can be expensive and should be kept well away from a general election.

But the GE couldn't wait until after the locals as FF backbenchers won't wear a fourth budget. Given how long it took to form a government last time around, early 2019 would just about give enough time to have a Taoiseach by the end of March when our neighbours leave the giant trading/political bloc we joined together >40 years ago. Wouldn't want to be sending a caretaker Taoiseach to the 2019 March EU Summit.


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