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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:14 pm 
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You'd have to say it's been a pretty good week for Mary Lou. The crisis accelerated her de facto coronation as leader of SF while FG/FF will be blamed for a chaotic week and now have to trudge on with an impossible compromise arrangement for a few months.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:18 pm 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
temene wrote:
Image


That list just re-enforces how bereft of political talent we are, I wouldn't delegate a lot of the tasks I give to Junior staff in my office to most of them.


Mickey Noo to the rescue 8DD

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:19 pm 
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And another thing...

What kind of coalition or minority governments are feasible in the spring? This confidence-and-supply effort hasn't ended well and relations are pretty sour as a result. If this means various FF/FG combos are out, and FF are ruling out an arrangement with SF...well, there's no solution if the current polls are correct.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:23 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
You'd have to say it's been a pretty good week for Mary Lou. The crisis accelerated her de facto coronation as leader of SF while FG/FF will be blamed for a chaotic week and now have to trudge on with an impossible compromise arrangement for a few months.

Mary Lou for Tao iseach
I think she is a Gilmore, good in the angry mode, but no real warmth, failing badly in the likability factor

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:25 pm 
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Now is ideal for a new party with new policies to emerge - healthcare, housing, transport, economy, brexit. Not difficult.
Even in a few months, they'd make serious inroads and win seats with our PRSTV system

Otherwise it is FF/FG coalition 'in the national interest'


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:38 pm 
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temene wrote:
Now is ideal for a new party with new policies to emerge - healthcare, housing, transport, economy, brexit. Not difficult.
Even in a few months, they'd make serious inroads and win seats with our PRSTV system

Otherwise it is FF/FG coalition 'in the national interest'


Mayyyyybe. But we lived through an unprecedented economic meltdown and there's no new party of note - apart from the independents.

Renua tried but it didn't work out well at all. Indeed, the financial cost to many of those who ran was pretty heavy. There was maybe one weekend where McWilliams and Fintan O'Toole and others were going to offer themselves as saviours but then they didn't. Soc Dems looked good in the election debates last time - got nowhere in terms of seats; lost their most marketable member to FF.

A few months is not at all long enough to organise a new party. You need people, policies and bags of money while staying within the SIPO rules.

A breakthrough for SF is the closest to radical change that I could foresee. Maybe with Mary Lou they could get beyond the plateau they are on now. But the Gilmore comparison could be a good one. Would she serve as a minority partner to FF for five years, defending a few 'hard decisions' made by other ministers? And, if so, at what cost?


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:51 pm 
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temene wrote:

Otherwise it is FF/FG coalition 'in the national interest'

A unity government. It would be historical poetry if the border issue that created their enmity united them around Brexit.

A couple of things though, I don't think the Tories can push much longer without having to concede some sort of soft transition that we all know will just become the norm. So once the Brexit standoff ends and new TDs have done their two years for their pensions it's go time for Fianna Fail if they want to try their luck.

However I'm not sure that they've done well out of this, the scalp is essentially Sein Feins and come election time SF can stick it to FF that they had to be prodded to act. They could be shown to have acted against the national interest twice in one decade.

Another consideration is that in many surveys a lot of respondents have said the Gerry Adams would put them off voting SF. This crisis has projected Mary Lou to the fore in people minds as the next SF leader. I'm not sure about what people make of that but ultimately it's a battle between the two republican parties and in this last week one was goaded into action by the other.

Fianna Fail could easily stumble into an election that's beyond them.

Between UK, Irish and assembly elections SF have been in constant election cycle and I think momentum is on their side and not Fianna Fails.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:08 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
temene wrote:
Now is ideal for a new party with new policies to emerge - healthcare, housing, transport, economy, brexit. Not difficult.
Even in a few months, they'd make serious inroads and win seats with our PRSTV system

Otherwise it is FF/FG coalition 'in the national interest'


Mayyyyybe. But we lived through an unprecedented economic meltdown and there's no new party of note - apart from the independents.

Renua tried but it didn't work out well at all. Indeed, the financial cost to many of those who ran was pretty heavy. There was maybe one weekend where McWilliams and Fintan O'Toole and others were going to offer themselves as saviours but then they didn't. Soc Dems looked good in the election debates last time - got nowhere in terms of seats; lost their most marketable member to FF.

A few months is not at all long enough to organise a new party. You need people, policies and bags of money while staying within the SIPO rules.

A breakthrough for SF is the closest to radical change that I could foresee. Maybe with Mary Lou they could get beyond the plateau they are on now. But the Gilmore comparison could be a good one. Would she serve as a minority partner to FF for five years, defending a few 'hard decisions' made by other ministers? And, if so, at what cost?


The only hope is that new political leadership takes an established party in a completely different direction, as it seems impossible to start a new party here that can gain traction. Or maybe we have just not had the right calibre of person with adequate backers try to launch a new party. Renua, for God's sake, that was like going back in time, and the Soc Dems are hardly inspiring.

It would be a huge job for new SF leadership to get rid of their varied baggage of terrorist-hugging, chip-on-the-shoulder extreme nationalism, looney left economics and cult-like behaviour, which limits their appeal among most voters.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:51 pm 
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onioneater wrote:

It would be a huge job for new SF leadership to get rid of their varied baggage of terrorist-hugging, chip-on-the-shoulder extreme nationalism, looney left economics and cult-like behaviour, which limits their appeal among most voters.

I don't know about that. Brexit has also brought back to the Irish memory the awful arrogance that the British political establishment has towards our nation. It won't be our fault if the Brits splitting Irish communities provokes a backlash in Northern Ireland.

It's harder now to censure the news as it was during the troubles to suit any political narrative, so the actions which created armed revolt in response can't be managed as easily to slur those whose lives are being rent apart.
In ways the Tory's reckless approach towards the border and its communities is the same reckless hostility towards us as it was towards the Bogside or Belfast's Bombay Street in the 60s.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:17 pm 
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catbear wrote:
onioneater wrote:

It would be a huge job for new SF leadership to get rid of their varied baggage of terrorist-hugging, chip-on-the-shoulder extreme nationalism, looney left economics and cult-like behaviour, which limits their appeal among most voters.

I don't know about that. Brexit has also brought back to the Irish memory the awful arrogance that the British political establishment has towards our nation. It won't be our fault if the Brits splitting Irish communities provokes a backlash in Northern Ireland.

It's harder now to censure the news as it was during the troubles to suit any political narrative, so the actions which created armed revolt in response can't be managed as easily to slur those whose lives are being rent apart.
In ways the Tory's reckless approach towards the border and its communities is the same reckless hostility towards us as it was towards the Bogside or Belfast's Bombay Street in the 60s.


This is as good an example of chip-on-the shoulder one-eyed republican victim mentality as any I've read. The poor old freedom fighters, shure they were forced to blow up women and children in their noble struggle to eventually sign up to SDLP-inspired ideas and proposals, that as far back as 1973 were the basis of the Sunningdale agreement. This was opposed with pointless violence for another 20+ years until eventually agreed to in the guise of the GFA. But let's leave all of that aside.

What UK political arrogance towards Ireland? They have taken a sovereign decision to leave the EU. Its a shit decision with big consequences for us but we have to get on with it. In the same way that ROI decided to leave Sterling in the 70's. You could argue that that decision created as much economic division on this island as Brexit will. But the business people just had to get on with it and I don't remember the UK accusing us at the time of arrogance or threatening us with a backlash over us taking a sovereign decision (leaving the link with Sterling).

If the UK does enact Brexit (debatable if they ever will due to the incompetence of their political leaders) it will require a "hard" (people and custom checking) border as otherwise both the ROI and UK will be in breach of international agreements. This is evident to anyone with a brain. We have had such borders before for decades. Anyone threatening violence over the re-introduction of such border checks is essentially a fellow-traveler of psychopaths, as only psychopaths could get upset at appearance of a border between two democratic countries..


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:22 pm 
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werpen wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
You'd have to say it's been a pretty good week for Mary Lou. The crisis accelerated her de facto coronation as leader of SF while FG/FF will be blamed for a chaotic week and now have to trudge on with an impossible compromise arrangement for a few months.

Mary Lou for Tao iseach
I think she is a Gilmore, good in the angry mode, but no real warmth, failing badly in the likability factor

Least we forget her roots are in FF :)

She took it badly when FF didn't give her the nod to run for public office.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:36 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Maybe with Mary Lou they could get beyond the plateau they are on now. But the Gilmore comparison could be a good one. Would she serve as a minority partner to FF for five years, defending a few 'hard decisions' made by other ministers? And, if so, at what cost?

The knuckledraggers that make up a chunk of the Irish vote will desert SF again, because 'woman' and 'socially liberal'.

I don't expect another election to see a different outcome, barring that FG have somehow managed to position themselves as a party of the urban middle classes. Still, in terms of seats, it's going to be a marginal difference.

The basics of each party is entrenched in their share of the vote. They're fighting over a half-dozen percent of the vote that always turns up and votes for whoever has pissed them off least most recently.

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:55 pm 
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onioneater wrote:
In the same way that ROI decided to leave Sterling in the 70's. You could argue that that decision created as much economic division on this island as Brexit will.

THe only person I've seen use that argument is a unionist who holds our independence as illegitimate.

You could argue that it is but what would be your point?

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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:24 pm 
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Where does this Sinn Féin is a cult stuff spring from ? Is it just people want to believe that their fellow citizens must have fallen under some sort of brainwashing. People can't fathom disagreement.

If you want to talk cultlike, Liveline today was full Jonestown territory. Duffy let a succession of Fine Gael members on, who each proclaimed how 'Frances should never have gone'

Duffy also listened to Leo's statement in the Dáil in which he correctly noted that Leo's speech was exactly what he would have said if Frances had stayed.

Party members aren't really cult members, that's Looney Eoghan Harris thinking. If you hear someone say it you know it's a loon. Each party membership in Ireland is really a subculture, a lot of it is a socialising worldview kind of thing. Ireland has lots of subcultures, People who attend Leinster rugby matches are a subculture. FG members are a subculture. Some subcultures are closely correlated.


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 Post subject: Re: #GE17 / #GE18 - the Election Nobody Wanted
PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:26 pm 
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catbear wrote:
onioneater wrote:
In the same way that ROI decided to leave Sterling in the 70's. You could argue that that decision created as much economic division on this island as Brexit will.

THe only person I've seen use that argument is a unionist who holds our independence as illegitimate.

You could argue that it is but what would be your point?


An argument is not wrong or right dependent on the person making it, it is whether the logic is correct or not. It is undeniable that breaking the link with Sterling was an instance in the past where the ROI as a sovereign state did something that was difficult for cross-border business and in terms of imposing a real economic border, but people just had to put up with it. Brexit is a similar situation where a sovereign nation the UK is making an economic decision which is difficult for ROI and indeed for many of it own people but that is democracy and we as a nation have to accept their right as a nation to do so. That is my point.

We of course have to look after our own interests but not to the point of describing such a democratic decision as their natural arrogance towards us and in telling them that we will veto a deal if they don't implement an internal economic border (our government's argument that NI should remain within the Single Market).


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