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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 12:51 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Social Media effect?


A lot of the conditioning pre-dates social media. I remember what it was like 25 years ago, being pro-life was not a popular opinion. ot to be insulting here : the attitude was that "only the 'holy joes' were pro-life".

As werpen has pointed out "The real stigma if you are under 18/21 or even 25 is not having an abortion but having a baby. "
I remember the phrases "your life will be ruined if you have a kid", and by my observation you wont find many pregnant women on university campuses. Its re-markedly easy to get people to convince themselves to terminate their pregnancies.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:14 pm 
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metalmike wrote:
I thought I'd brave a prediction on the referendum. I will be very surprised if the amendment is not passed - but it won't be by much. For all of the Yes Stickers and young people in Dublin we have to remember that very few of them can vote. One thing is for sure - Dublin will be Yes - but I will be surprised if it is much above 60/40 yes. Dunlaoghaire might hit 70% yes but I can't see many other constituencies getting that far. I think every Dublin, Wicklow, Meath and Kildare constituency will vote yes as will the urban constituencies in Cork and Galway.

The country is more problematic - in 1983 many consituencies were 80/20 to approve the amendment. We might be 35 years away but doubling that anti-amendment vote in a generation would be a challenge. I think it needs to get close to doubling for Yes to achieve a sizable victory - I don't see that happening. Yes should be very pleased if they get over 56% countrywide.

If the Yes vote is 52% or less I would hate to be a politician in this country - the vituperation, personal abuse and pressure will be intense when it comes time to deal with the legislation and it will be a dogs dinner by the time the scrap is over - particularly if we end up with an FF/SF government dealing with it - it will tear both parties apart.

To be honest I think the No side shot themselves in the foot with the message and form of advertising that they used. They went at it with a sledgehammer. For people who have deep convictions about the issue - many of them found the message offensive - for others who have difficulty with approving abortion they felt that siding with that message and the behaviour of the people promoting it made them feel uneasy. I know some people who have chosen to abstain rather than vote No - one person has even gone on holiday just to avoid the issue. In an amendment referendum it can be argued that many who abstain are in favour of the status quo - and before the No side leap to claim victory I would point out that the turnout in 1983 was 53.7% meaning that the pro-amendment vote only got 36%. My belief is that turnout will be higher this time - maybe 60% - looking at my prediction that will suggest that the Yes side (who are challenging the status quo in this case) will have got 33% of the vote.

My best guess is 55 to 45 for Yes.


Well I was massively wrong I'm glad to say - probably thanks to a younger generation who took this seriously and got their vote out (on both sides). Now - won't some of you stand for office and push the current lot out at the next election?


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:23 pm 
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Location: Tullamore
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Social Media effect?

Dinosaur logic in the constitution finally meeting its comet?
The young smarter than the rest and able to make up their own minds?

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:37 pm 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
56% Yes

I am so glad to be proven so very wrong :D

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:30 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Social Media effect?

Dinosaur logic in the constitution finally meeting its comet?
The young smarter than the rest and able to make up their own minds?



It clearly shows the generation gap. The older generation grew up in an oppressive atmosphere. Almost like brainwashing.
The 8th amendment aside this also shows a glimpse into the future. The younger generation on social media are now susceptible to group think and crushing dissenting views online. There is a difference between anonymous forums and facebook where the individual is identifiable.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 9:15 am 
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Location: Dublin SE
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
It clearly shows the generation gap. The older generation grew up in an oppressive atmosphere. Almost like brainwashing.
The 8th amendment aside this also shows a glimpse into the future. The younger generation on social media are now susceptible to group think and crushing dissenting views online. There is a difference between anonymous forums and facebook where the individual is identifiable.

There is a serious amount of denial here as to what just happened.

The only, only demographic to vote to retain the 8th was over 65's.

Men, women young and older <65 yrs, urban & rural voted not slightly but overwhelmingly in a landslide to repeal the 8th. In Dublin the lowest vote Yes was over 73%.

"Brainwashing" "younger generation susceptible to group think" !! give me a break. The only Brainwashed generation subject to groupthink was the over 65 demographic who are so brainwashed by the church they couldn't empathise with their neighbour in a crisis.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 9:20 am 
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Joined: Oct 23, 2011
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Terra Incognita wrote:
The only Brainwashed generation subject to groupthink was the over 65 demographic who are so brainwashed by the church they couldn't empathise with their neighbour in a crisis.


I've been thinking about shy YES vote, which seems to have been way stronger than the anticipated shy NO vote.

If there was a large shy YES vote, who exactly were they shy of?

My best guess is the church.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 11:40 am 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
It clearly shows the generation gap. The older generation grew up in an oppressive atmosphere. Almost like brainwashing.
The 8th amendment aside this also shows a glimpse into the future. The younger generation on social media are now susceptible to group think and crushing dissenting views online. There is a difference between anonymous forums and facebook where the individual is identifiable.

There is a serious amount of denial here as to what just happened.

The only, only demographic to vote to retain the 8th was over 65's.

Men, women young and older <65 yrs, urban & rural voted not slightly but overwhelmingly in a landslide to repeal the 8th. In Dublin the lowest vote Yes was over 73%.

"Brainwashing" "younger generation susceptible to group think" !! give me a break. The only Brainwashed generation subject to groupthink was the over 65 demographic who are so brainwashed by the church they couldn't empathise with their neighbour in a crisis.


The brainwashing comment was about the older generations. You just made my point! Take a step back, i`m not arguing about the 8th or anything, just making an observation. Think about how future voting could play out.


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