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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:57 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
A small yes win, but i wouldn’t be surprised to see Roscommon says NO again.

A lot of older voters here.

Looks like I was wrong, it's actually a big win for the Yes side if the exit polls here and on boards is anything to go by, plus the exit polls in the Irish Times.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:59 pm 
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ps200306 called this correctly some time ago.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 12:32 am 
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Age correlations dominate.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:15 am 
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croquette wrote:
Hmm, after the Brexit and Trump wins, who knows?

Yes, 53% (I hope I’m wrong, would love to see a landslide victory for yes).


Polls seem to be quite a bit off these days! Is how they are done skewing results? i.e are they done by landline phone that disproportionately captures older people or some such reason(s)??
Quite large generation gaps in those numbers posted above. Those in their 60s and older grew up in a totally different country in so many ways (and even those alot younger have too).
Its probably going to be the same for us in ways


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:30 am 
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looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:14 am 
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My most optimistic was 60/40.
Even as someone whose been rabidly yes for years, I'm astounded.
I was worried it'd pass in a Dublin vs the rest of the country, scraping through outcome.
This is better then I ever hoped.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:08 pm 
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Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Good point, highest No vote is 65+ age group who grew up having the fear of god beaten into them both figuratively and literally, mentally conditioned to do what the church told them and to fear free will because god is watching and judging and will cast you down to hell.

Thankfully it seems this blanket of fear and shame has been lifted from the younger generations and self determination flourishes.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:41 pm 
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Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 5:05 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.

No, I suspect sour grapes... ;)

I think you're right, though, the extreme No (banners of aborted foetuses on roundabouts anyone?) damaged the wavering "no" vote more than it converted the wavering "yes".

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 5:27 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.

No, I suspect sour grapes... ;)

I think you're right, though, the extreme No (banners of aborted foetuses on roundabouts anyone?) damaged the wavering "no" vote more than it converted the wavering "yes".


Yes. Plus the fact that Iona were leading the No side is a turnoff for most people these days.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 5:34 pm 
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Apparently the Donegal result is delayed due to a jam in their fax machine, so they can't contact Dublin Castle officially
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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:37 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.

No, I suspect sour grapes... ;)

I think you're right, though, the extreme No (banners of aborted foetuses on roundabouts anyone?) damaged the wavering "no" vote more than it converted the wavering "yes".


Yes. Plus the fact that Iona were leading the No side is a turnoff for most people these days.


Perhaps. The detail in the RTE Exit poll is interesting. Example:
Quote:
Asked when they decided how to vote, 75% said they always knew; 8% said following the Savita Halappanavar case; 1% said following the Citizens' Assembly; 1% said following the Oireacthas committee; 12% said during the Referendum campaign.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 8:52 pm 
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Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 667
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.

No, I suspect sour grapes... ;)

I think you're right, though, the extreme No (banners of aborted foetuses on roundabouts anyone?) damaged the wavering "no" vote more than it converted the wavering "yes".


Yes. Plus the fact that Iona were leading the No side is a turnoff for most people these days.


For me, one of the biggest turnoffs for waverings was the Prime Time debate. Whatever happened behind the scenes, the net result was that the most important debate for undecideds was between Simon Harris and Peadar Tóibín. That was horrendous optics even before either of them had uttered a word.


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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:40 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I'd suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.



Well if you were a no voter under 25 you had to keep your head down.
The real stigma if you are under 18/21 or even 25 is not having an abortion but having a baby.
We have always had a strong herd mentality. I suspect it has something to do with the education system.
The older generations had there own more overt conditioning.

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 Post subject: Re: 8th Amendment poll predictions
PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:41 pm 
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Thing Fish wrote:
looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


Social Media effect?


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