Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:01 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Location: To the right of the decimal place
After taking a break from the Pin due to the mess the 8the amendment thread had become, I thought it would be interesting to do some analysis of the thread I started in October (and is still going).

I analysed the 1,785 posts from the start of the thread to the end of polling day on Friday. In total, 84 posters contributed to the thread. It may not surprise you however to hear that a small number of posters contributed the vast majority of the posts.

Most people posted < 10 times to the thread, with seven posters posting 100 times or more.

Image

These top seven posters accounted for 48% of posts on this topic. The top 10 posters accounted for 60% of the posts.
Image

The usual suspects in there, but also a couple I didn't expect to see.

I then categorised posters into Yes or No camps (see below for more on this). I analysed everyone with 5 posts or more. The interesting thing was that Yes and No posters broke down 63%/37%, more or less like the final result. But the No posters were far more vocal (52 posts/person on the No side vs 31 posts/person on Yes side), with total number of posts breaking down more or less 50/50.

Image

This seems to echo a post in the thread where someone was claiming that the No side were victims and made up 50% of voters; I reckon it's easy to mistake 50% of the noise for 50% of the people.

I'd like to do some further analysis of trends over time to see how posting changed over the course of the campaign, and whether other people dropped out towards the end like I did, but the data is kind of awkward to work with.

(A note on categorising posters into Yes/No camps; although it's obviously a subjective process, in most cases there was no ambiguity as opinions were clearly voiced. In only a small number of cases (7 to be exact) I couldn't place someone into a Yes/No camp, either because they were explicitly undecided or because they didn't state a preference. Even the trolling looneys generally came out on one side or the other. I didn't categorise the 41 posters with fewer than five posts each, for a total of 112 posts, purely due to time and because it's quite hard in PHPBB to pull up all posts by one poster in one thread, without database access. If anyone wants to help categorise the remaining posters let me know, although I don't think it would materially change anything.)

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:55 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 667
Out of interest what category did you have me in?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 11:08 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Location: To the right of the decimal place
Barmiest Loon wrote:
Out of interest what category did you have me in?


I had you as a No. You clearly stated your preference for a No result and said that you were voting No.

Note that how you actually voted isn’t relevant. This is just about which side people were arguing for (if either).

By the way I knew you would be the first one to query that!

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 11:32 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 667
Mantissa wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:
Out of interest what category did you have me in?


I had you as a No. You clearly stated your preference for a No result and said that you were voting No.

Note that how you actually voted isn’t relevant. This is just about which side people were arguing for (if either).

By the way I knew you would be the first one to query that!


Ok, I think I only said I'd vote NO once, and whilst I leaned closer towards it as time went on, in the end I remained on the fence as I stated was my instinct originally and did not vote either way.

Depending on the point of your analysis, my 50 odd posts skew your findings a little.

And by the way I knew that you knew that I'd be first. Maybe I have missed you. Every time you take a break from the Pin I picture you as Stephen Fry, welcome back :D

Edit to add - but if voting was compulsory, I would have voted NO, so maybe not that skewed.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 2:28 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10826
Mantissa wrote:
But the No posters were far more vocal (52 posts/person on the No side vs 31 posts/person on Yes side), with total number of posts breaking down more or less 50/50.

Not surprising really. When you're outnumbered two-to-one there's a lot more shite to counter.

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 2:41 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6264
Location: On the Road
Mantissa wrote:
After taking a break from the Pin due to the mess the 8the amendment thread had become, I thought it would be interesting to do some analysis of the thread I started in October (and is still going).

I analysed the 1,785 posts from the start of the thread to the end of polling day on Friday. In total, 84 posters contributed to the thread. It may not surprise you however to hear that a small number of posters contributed the vast majority of the posts.

Most people posted < 10 times to the thread, with seven posters posting 100 times or more.

Image

These top seven posters accounted for 48% of posts on this topic. The top 10 posters accounted for 60% of the posts.
Image

The usual suspects in there, but also a couple I didn't expect to see.

I then categorised posters into Yes or No camps (see below for more on this). I analysed everyone with 5 posts or more. The interesting thing was that Yes and No posters broke down 63%/37%, more or less like the final result. But the No posters were far more vocal (52 posts/person on the No side vs 31 posts/person on Yes side), with total number of posts breaking down more or less 50/50.

Image

This seems to echo a post in the thread where someone was claiming that the No side were victims and made up 50% of voters; I reckon it's easy to mistake 50% of the noise for 50% of the people.

I'd like to do some further analysis of trends over time to see how posting changed over the course of the campaign, and whether other people dropped out towards the end like I did, but the data is kind of awkward to work with.

(A note on categorising posters into Yes/No camps; although it's obviously a subjective process, in most cases there was no ambiguity as opinions were clearly voiced. In only a small number of cases (7 to be exact) I couldn't place someone into a Yes/No camp, either because they were explicitly undecided or because they didn't state a preference. Even the trolling looneys generally came out on one side or the other. I didn't categorise the 41 posters with fewer than five posts each, for a total of 112 posts, purely due to time and because it's quite hard in PHPBB to pull up all posts by one poster in one thread, without database access. If anyone wants to help categorise the remaining posters let me know, although I don't think it would materially change anything.)


So what's the lesson to be learned them?

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 7:42 am 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3698
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

So what's the lesson to be learned them?

Short answer, people who are defending (in a losing battle) are more likely to fight harder than those attacking.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 8:24 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1925
dolanbaker wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

So what's the lesson to be learned them?

Short answer, people who are defending (in a losing battle) are more likely to fight harder than those attacking.

Also there wasn't enough Russian troll farms to swing the vote?

Or there isnt enough abortion threads

_________________
An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 9:05 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Location: To the right of the decimal place
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
So what's the lesson to be learned them?

It's just data; make of it what you will.

Personally I think two things:
1) The shady liberal agenda to stifle the right's speech isn't working. Which is a good thing, because the No side was its own worst enemy in this campaign.

2) While the thread in question seemed to contain a wide range of posters, in reality it was only 10 people in a room shouting at each other (9 of them apparently men).

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 9:36 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6264
Location: On the Road
Mantissa wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
So what's the lesson to be learned them?

It's just data; make of it what you will.

Personally I think two things:
1) The shady liberal agenda to stifle the right's speech isn't working. Which is a good thing, because the No side was its own worst enemy in this campaign.

2) While the thread in question seemed to contain a wide range of posters, in reality it was only 10 people in a room shouting at each other (9 of them apparently men).


You mean to say it went downhill after you took hiatus? :D

I dont think it was that bad to be honest. There was an attempt to grapple with some issues that went well beyond the simple 'babykillers' and 'hard cases' default positions. It probably ramped up in volume the two days in advance of the vote but overall it was fairly civil.

Re your point about the 'liberal agenda' and the media, I dont think the Pin is representative (at least in terms of those who actually contribute) of broader views expressed across media generally....and I dont see why it should be necessarily. The broader media (and its hangers on) appeared to be very much pro-regime throughout.

Your point about free speech and the No campaign is well made however. To have representatives of Catholicism and assorted hangers on front centre in such a debate is a turn off for most people.

In fact, Id say the so-called 'liberal elite' (and thats actually undeniably what they are now) have been very well served by the existence of such relics in Ireland since at least the 1990s. All it requires is for somoeones religious credentials to be pointed to and they are basicaly rendered irrelevant or a paedophile/woman hater/baby kidnapper etc.

As a result, despite the fact that I would have voted No if I had a vote, I think to finally rid the stage of the likes of Iona would be positive. Personally Id like to see a genuine alternative based in the principles of rationality and democratic debate emerge to oppose what will be the inevitable challenges to freedom of expression, as well as the comings assaults on the education and legal systems that will follow this result. That means getting the likes of Mattie McGrath and Ronan Mullen off the stage and finding some new blood, preferably non-religious folk.

Even from your own perspective surely you'd welcome a superior level of public engagement and debate?

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 9:37 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Posts: 1909
This is fascinating! I'm only surprised that we were so representative of the wider community.

I wonder how many people changed their minds through the course of the campaign/thread. I started as a Yes, wavered a bit in the middle (the 'eradicate Down Syndrome' claims made me pause), and then became a hard Yes in the final fortnight or so.

But overall, like the rest of the country, it's safe to say few minds were changed here.

p.s. Fintan O'Toole has a good piece on why the winning side shouldn't be dicks to the minority.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 9:48 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5380
Mantissa wrote:
in reality it was only 10 people in a room shouting at each other (9 of them apparently men).

I thought the debate was quite civil, given the depth of feelings involved.

It certainly fell far short of tabs vs spaces acrimony.

What I've learned from this thread is that I definitely need to get out more.

_________________
"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:05 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 19, 2010
Posts: 2670
Location: Dublin SE
@Mantissa fascinating thread.

Data is everything, without it you are just another person with an opinion!

I’m just disappointed I didn’t make the top 10. Obviously I was going for quality over quantity :wink:

_________________
"Perfect is the enemy of the good"
Voltaire (1694 - 1778)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:27 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Location: To the right of the decimal place
Terra Incognita wrote:
@Mantissa fascinating thread.

Data is everything, without it you are just another person with an opinion!

I’m just disappointed I didn’t make the top 10. Obviously I was going for quality over quantity :wink:


You were actually #11 :-)

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 11:50 am 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 21, 2008
Posts: 1488
I participated in dialogue elsewhere on the internet but with the shite I saw posted here I mostly just walked away.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Click for Latest Posts LATEST POSTS Click for Forum List FORUMS   

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster

  

Pyramid Built, Is Better Built!