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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:36 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Nonetheless, it's done and dusted now and abortion on demand it will be. And the biggest culprits for this in my view are the religious right who hijacked the entire No campaign.

Did they hijack it or were they the pilots? I honestly don't know.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:40 am 
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Eschatologist wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Nonetheless, it's done and dusted now and abortion on demand it will be. And the biggest culprits for this in my view are the religious right who hijacked the entire No campaign.

Did they hijack it or were they the pilots? I honestly don't know.


Well without them I see no reason why some form of compromise couldn't have been reached long ago. And I'd say they definitely made it more difficult for more reasonable people to identify as No. Maybe monopolized is better than hijacked ?

Not that compromise will ever satisfy the hardline elements on the other side either of course.....given their belief system orbits itself around the pursuit and exercise of power above all else.

Further, into the future I would suggest that the many who view themselves as broadly liberal around these parts begin to take note of what many of these activist allies actually and stand for and believe in (beyond mobilizing around specific single issues). Because history tells us that once they finish with one group of opponents they quickly move on to another.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:06 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
...a majority of Yes voters felt that the legislative proposals went well beyond their own personal preference i.e. they favoured Liberalisation but they did not favour abortion on demand. This view was not represented anywhere, either within the political sphere or the media. Instead two extremities were pitted against each other, neither of which represented the majority view on the matter.

It's amazing after all we've been through that there are still people in Ireland so ignorant of the way politics works. If you want representation you either find someone willing to promote your point of view or you do it yourself. After ten years of this shit since the GFC I'm inclined to think it's not ignorance, but laziness and lack of backbone.

Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
In essence, the best thing that happened to Repeal was the presence of hardline religious people standing front centre on the other side as it allowed the hard left leaning lunatic fringe at the heart of Repeal to avoid any focus on their own anti human ideology.

Any Yes voter now wringing their hands about what's coming down the tracks and claiming "the religious loonies made me do it" is an idiot, and a culpable idiot. The referendum debate was not a negotiation about the eventual legislation, it was a Yes or No. They knew what they were voting for.

Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
...the religious element in Ireland are a hindrance rather than a help. They represent nobody in their extremity and only serve to alienate the middle ground. Unless somebody steps forward to replace them I'm afraid Ireland will be unrecognizable (in a bad way) within a decade, if it's not already.

This is pathetic. Everyone loves to think of themselves as a moderate. If you only wanted "a little bit of abortion" it was your responsibility to put forward a cogent philosophical justification for it (it's harder than you think). Don't hide behind the baying Irish mob with their anachronistic panties in a twist about "church oppression".

Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Further, into the future I would suggest that the many who view themselves as broadly liberal around these parts begin to take note of what many of these activist allies actually and stand for and believe in

Yeah, 'cos it's very useful to watch what the horses do after you've unbolted the stable door. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:16 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
It's amazing after all we've been through that there are still people in Ireland so ignorant of the way politics works. If you want representation you either find someone willing to promote your point of view or you do it yourself. After ten years of this shit since the GFC I'm inclined to think it's not ignorance, but laziness and lack of backbone.


That's fair comment.

Quote:
Any Yes voter now wringing their hands about what's coming down the tracks and claiming "the religious loonies made me do it" is an idiot, and a culpable idiot. The referendum debate was not a negotiation about the eventual legislation, it was a Yes or No. They knew what they were voting for.


Again. This is fair and I've stated as much. However, in terms of the effecting the result, claiming that rape victims should be forced to carry a child to full term simply isn't going to get you any votes.

Quote:
This is pathetic. Everyone loves to think of themselves as a moderate. If you only wanted "a little bit of abortion" it was your responsibility to put forward a cogent philosophical justification for it (it's harder than you think). Don't hide behind the baying Irish mob with their anachronistic panties in a twist about "church oppression".
[/quote]

I'm a realist. And what's realistic today is that we no longer live in a world where questions are decided by men or women debating issues such as morality in a rational manner. Rationality itself is under attack. Science is under attack. Principles such as the presumption of innocence are under attack. And they are under attack from people who believe that debate itself is a form of oppression because it privileges one party to the debate over another. A large part of why Repeal won is because they branded the campaign and sold it to people as if it was a high street fashion item. In essence you're dealing with people who will not engage (and are Incapable on engaging) on your terms. I know you'll find this type of approach abhorrent but some concession around the hard cases from the outset could have seen a much more restrictive regime introduced. I know you'll scoff but that would have been a realistic stance ie it would have allowed the voting public feel (because 'feelings' are very important these days) that they were helping women whilst not killing too many babies. There's very little philosophy involved I'm afraid.

And about the 'church oppression' stuff, I personally think it's quite clearly overkill. I'd suggest that overall the Catholic Church impacted the lives of more Irish people in a positive manner than in a negative one. In terms of education none of our parents or grandparents would have been able to read or write without the church. It coordinated networks for emigrants and provided relief for the poor when no such assistance came from the State or the wealthy. However, the crimes of some of its members and especially the attempts to cover them up by the hierarchy have tarnished the institution in the public eye meaning that it has lost any moral authority it had as a result. Therefore, in the current climate me, anyone deemed to be somehow representative of or associated with the Church Is quite clearly a vote loser.

Of course what nobody seems to have ever sought to point out is that the political ideologies espoused by many of those on the Repeal side who spent so much of their time screaming about church abuse etc, have been themslwves responsible for the slaughter of over a hundred million people during the course of the 20th century ie the Irish Catholic Church was a very very benign institution in comparison to any leftist regime in history that I can think of. Yet this is what these people espouse and what they want for Ireland.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 6:17 pm 
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PtG, that is a very reasonable response, probably more than my strident post deserved. I agree with most of what you say, except where you suggest that one should engage in marketing to promote a good outcome with irrational people. That is coercion and dishonesty. I accept that "you can't reason someone out of a position that they weren't reasoned into in the first place". But regardless of outcome I would prefer to see a tiny number of people who still have a notion of classical reasoning than an entire population operating on their emotions. A meme can reproduce and take hold. An emotion will always be a reed bending in the wind.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:36 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
PtG, your dogged obsessed with the idea that there's some kind of communist plot at the centre of the Repeal movement (and Irish politics in general) is bizarre.

That is what you're saying, right? With your reference to a hundred million dead.

Reds under the bed!


Certainly the Far Left were a big part in the push.
In terms of Savita, she either did or didn't die because she wasn't granted the abortion she asked for depending on who you listen to. But her use and then reuse as a martyr for abortion on demand had more than a little bit of Pavlik Morozov about it.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:05 pm 
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There are two false narratives in the post-referendum debate.

On the "Yes" side there is the claim that the scale of their success is a game-changer and should lead to full liberalisation.

On the "No" side, there are claims that the poll was rigged.

A comparison of this referendum with the same-sex marriage vote would refute both claims.

Firstly, the Yes vote was highly predictable once you accept that (a) almost no-one who said Yes to same-sex marriage would vote No to repealing the Eight Amendment and (b) turn-out must be higher.

There is no logical reason why someone who voted Yes in 2015 couldn't switch to No this time (or vice-versa): there is no longer any link between marriage and child-bearing in Ireland so the voter could regard these two referendums are logically independent. In reality, however, we all know those who voted Yes in 2015 voted overwhelmingly Yes this time (and vice-versa). In terms of turnout, it was also predictable that an issue which had been a battleground for 35 years would generate a higher turnout. In that sense, the increased turnout was modest: 64.13% compared to 60.52% in 2015.

Bear in mind that if the only Yes voters this time were those who voted Yes in 2015, there would still have been a majority of 62.2% assuming the No vote just held up. So the "surprise" Yes victory boils down to an additional 4.2% percentage points and this can be explained in one word, demographics.

Paradoxically, our voters are getting older: the numbers of over-65s have increased from 610.3K to 649.9K since 2015 i.e. almost 40K more in that age bracket. At the same time, the number of young people is stagnating; 276.3K of 20 to 24 year-olds now which is only 1.2K extra since 2015.

Why then did the "liberal youth" prevail over the growing numbers of older voters?

Because the voters who were aged 61 to 64 in 2015 didn't switch their vote simply because they joined the over-65s while the youngest voters reflected the Yes predisposition of their peers who had voted in 2015. The problem for "No" can be put brutally, they are dying out. Of 68,133 deaths in the past three years, 65,265 were over 65.

An additional 145,875 voters are on the register compared to 2015 which is consistent with the current, historically low, numbers of young people reaching voting age and a delay in removing the most recently deceased (a few of whom may nonetheless have voted!)

Of course, not all the new voters went to the polls and voted Yes but, unlike in ordinary elections, young voters seem to participate at least as much as the population in general and exit polls indicate they were heavily "Yes". I would estimate that out of the 146K new voters on the register, there were at least 90K additional Yes voters casting their ballots for the first time out. Higher turnout accounts for 135K additional Yes votes (i.e. 4% of the 3,367K electorate) and you have 225K more Yes votes, without persuading any "No" voters to switch.

There were 1,429,981 Yes votes this time, which is 228K more than for same-sex marriage. My estimates based on two factors (young voters and higher turnout) explain practically all of this additional Yes vote.

The other side of the ledger is even more remarkable and I don't think anyone has highlighted it. Despite the higher turnout and the nationwide organisation of the pro-life campaign, there were fewer No votes this time than in 2015 i.e. this time there were 723632 No votes, and this is 10,688 fewer than in 2015. I don't believe this decline is due to "switching". I think it is mortality - the true Catholics amongst us are a dying breed.

So, the Yes side can't claim an extraordinary victory: they simply got out the youth vote. On the other side, the No claims of voting rigging don't wash unless you think the 2015 vote was also rigged (in which case, your tin foil hat needs further adjustment). The youth vote is powerful but I think when it comes to the many issues that might create a generational divide (pensions, housing, health), the older voters will protect their interests.


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:38 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:

On the "No" side, there are claims that the poll was rigged.


Who is making these claims, I seem to have missed it

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:11 pm 
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Quote:
Who is making these claims, I seem to have missed it


Brothers who moved to Ireland to live in a country without abortion claim referendum was 'rigged'
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 49437.html


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:12 pm 
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the dude wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:

On the "No" side, there are claims that the poll was rigged.


Who is making these claims, I seem to have missed it


And this kind of thing:
https://www.save8.ie/rigged/

Or a more sophisticated version from Mattie McGrath

https://www.rte.ie/news/eighth-amendmen ... -politics/


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:46 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
This is the old alt-right story that shadowy forces are keeping conservative white men down by championing a liberal devil-worshiping agenda.

This is becoming quite a tiresome obsession with you.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:36 am 
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It's weird to see the DUP actually siding with the RCC in response to the vote, it's like the closing of a loop that started with Pope Alexander VIII backing King Billy.

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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:27 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Of course what nobody seems to have ever sought to point out is that the political ideologies espoused by many of those on the Repeal side who spent so much of their time screaming about church abuse etc, have been themslwves responsible for the slaughter of over a hundred million people during the course of the 20th century ie the Irish Catholic Church was a very very benign institution in comparison to any leftist regime in history that I can think of. Yet this is what these people espouse and what they want for Ireland.


This could be because such a comparison is utter bullshit.

You could also say that the Irish Catholic Church was a very very benign institution in comparison to any righist (is that even a word?) regime in history that I can think of (Pinochet and the Argie Junta come to mind).

When your argument is that the Irish Catholic Church didn't actually murder people....I...I'm kinda speechless myself. This isn't a big or clever argument, I hate to break it to you.

That said I wouldn't mind being imprisoned in the gulags in those horrible socialist Scandinavian countries.

Mantissa, I feel sorry for your thread.

In closing, Пролетарии всех стран, соединяйтесь!


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:38 pm 
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@london_irish
Quote:
your argument is that the Irish Catholic Church didn't actually murder people


No where did PTG say that. :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: The 8th Amendment thread -- who said what
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:03 pm 
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GameBlame wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
PtG, your dogged obsessed with the idea that there's some kind of communist plot at the centre of the Repeal movement (and Irish politics in general) is bizarre.

That is what you're saying, right? With your reference to a hundred million dead.

Reds under the bed!


Certainly the Far Left were a big part in the push.


Stalin made abortion illegal in the Soviet Union. I just don't see any common thread between the individualist ideology (in social terms - not economic) that you find on the left today and between the communists responsible for genocide in C20. For the former, individual rights come first, for the latter the good of the state. They're very different.


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