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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:41 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
Madness of Crowds wrote:

Absolutely. There is a single specific and increasingly serious problem with housing costs, mainly restricted to Dublin, Cork and Galway, but apart from that the "squeezed middle" are very comfortable indeed. I ought to know, I'm one of them.

Sounds more like you're one of the "unsqueezed middle", someone who probably bought a home before prices went too high and have a mortgage that costs less that 20% or so of your income to service. If you're "very comfortable" then you're also at the upper end of middle, those of us at the other end are nowhere near as comfortable and really have to watch the pennies.


No I'm renting, albeit in a rent pressure zone, so I'm shielded from recent rises there. I'm on about 130% of the average industrial wage, less than I was on ten years ago and the only difference in my finances is that I'm not saving a lot beyond my 20% pension contributions, whereas back then, I was sticking nearly a quarter of my gross salary into a deposit account after tax and living costs.

The cost of housing is a big problem for a significant minority of people, but it's the only problem. Taxes are not particularly high. My total direct tax (IT + USC + PRSI) went from a low of about 18% in 2008 to about 25% now. It's a rise, but hardly crippling.

I've said it before, the difference between subsistence and sybaritic luxury for a single person is only about €5K a year.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:29 pm 
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Madness of Crowds wrote:
My total direct tax (IT + USC + PRSI) went from a low of about 18% in 2008 to about 25% now. It's a rise, but hardly crippling.

I've said it before, the difference between subsistence and sybaritic luxury for a single person is only about €5K a year.


If you were on 18% total tax today, I reckon you would be saving at least 2,500 Euro p.a. , more than halfway to sybaritic luxury! 8DD


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:44 pm 
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temene wrote:
Peter Casey:
'I am joining Fianna Fail with a view to becoming Taoiseach'
What a disappointment that he's "to revitalise Fianna Fail into a party that listens to the ordinary people of Ireland”..
He's ambitious

That article isn't about this, but the stats on Traveller incarceration in it are extraordinary:

Indo wrote:
Meanwhile, reports into the Traveller community show that they are the most vulnerable and disadvantaged group in Irish society — and highlight the need for certain issues to be addressed.

In 2009, a report called ‘Translating Pain into Action — Gender-based Violence and Minority Ethnic Women in Ireland’, which was published by the Women’s Health Council, found that Traveller women are proportionately 30 times as likely as settled women to suffer domestic violence.

Recent figures also show that although Travellers make up only 0.6pc of the population, they account for 10pc of the male prisoner population and 22pc of the female prison population.

Last year, data from the Economic and Social Research Institute’s 2017 report found that only 8pc of Traveller children reach Leaving Certificate level.

Asked about these statistics, Casey says: “It’s tragic.”


They may be the most vulnerable but they are definitely the most criminal. In the US there is an outcry about the black population being incarcerated at three times their proportion of the population (12% of the overall population vs. 33% of the prison population) and five times the incarceration rate of whites. However, it is heading in the right direction as the black incarceration rate was down 25% between 2009 and 2016.

From the numbers in the Indo article, Traveller men are nearly 17 times more likely to be incarcerated than the general population, and Traveller women 37 times more so than women in general. That is simply mind-boggling. In the US the debate rages about whether the criminal justice system is less fair to black people. The analysis of crime stats is fairly unambiguous -- black people commit gun homicides at four times the rate of the general population and violent crime in general at three times the rate. There is little evidence of systemic racial discrimination in the justice system. More ambiguous is the role that poverty plays in these stats -- some studies conclude it is the major factor, some do not.

The same debates are likely to beset the issue of Traveller crime and incarceration, but there's no denying the disproportionality is way worse for the Irish situation compared to the American one.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:25 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
temene wrote:
Peter Casey:
'I am joining Fianna Fail with a view to becoming Taoiseach'
What a disappointment that he's "to revitalise Fianna Fail into a party that listens to the ordinary people of Ireland”..
He's ambitious

That article isn't about this, but the stats on Traveller incarceration in it are extraordinary:

Indo wrote:
Meanwhile, reports into the Traveller community show that they are the most vulnerable and disadvantaged group in Irish society — and highlight the need for certain issues to be addressed.

In 2009, a report called ‘Translating Pain into Action — Gender-based Violence and Minority Ethnic Women in Ireland’, which was published by the Women’s Health Council, found that Traveller women are proportionately 30 times as likely as settled women to suffer domestic violence.

Recent figures also show that although Travellers make up only 0.6pc of the population, they account for 10pc of the male prisoner population and 22pc of the female prison population.

Last year, data from the Economic and Social Research Institute’s 2017 report found that only 8pc of Traveller children reach Leaving Certificate level.

Asked about these statistics, Casey says: “It’s tragic.”


They may be the most vulnerable but they are definitely the most criminal. In the US there is an outcry about the black population being incarcerated at three times their proportion of the population (12% of the overall population vs. 33% of the prison population) and five times the incarceration rate of whites. However, it is heading in the right direction as the black incarceration rate was down 25% between 2009 and 2016.

From the numbers in the Indo article, Traveller men are nearly 17 times more likely to be incarcerated than the general population, and Traveller women 37 times more so than women in general. That is simply mind-boggling. In the US the debate rages about whether the criminal justice system is less fair to black people. The analysis of crime stats is fairly unambiguous -- black people commit gun homicides at four times the rate of the general population and violent crime in general at three times the rate. There is little evidence of systemic racial discrimination in the justice system. More ambiguous is the role that poverty plays in these stats -- some studies conclude it is the major factor, some do not.

The same debates are likely to beset the issue of Traveller crime and incarceration, but there's no denying the disproportionality is way worse for the Irish situation compared to the American one.

Isn't that 47 times for women?
22% of the incarceration for 0.6% of the population allows only 78% for the other 99.4%.

Edit: I see you refer to all women ( including travelers as the comparitor) i think that "population excluding sub-group" is better due to the level of distortion.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Quote:
Irish Examiner
@irishexaminer
An FF spokesperson has formally rejected Peter Casey's claim he may join the party, supporting TDs Niall Collins and Timmy Dooley: "Mr Casey made clear during the campaign he has zero allegiance to FF; we will not be facilitating any personal crusade of his." #iestaff #Aras18


Maybe O Cuív will sign him up?


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:31 pm 
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superman wrote:
Isn't that 47 times for women?
22% of the incarceration for 0.6% of the population allows only 78% for the other 99.4%.

Edit: I see you refer to all women ( including travelers as the comparitor) i think that "population excluding sub-group" is better due to the level of distortion.

No, you'd expect 0.6% of the population to contain 0.6% of the incarcerated population. That the female half of that population contains 22% of the incarcerated female population means they are overrepresented by 22/0.6 = 37. It is reasonable to segregate by gender because the male prison population outnumbers women by between four and six to one, depending on which recent year you look at.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:20 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
superman wrote:
Isn't that 47 times for women?
22% of the incarceration for 0.6% of the population allows only 78% for the other 99.4%.

Edit: I see you refer to all women ( including travelers as the comparitor) i think that "population excluding sub-group" is better due to the level of distortion.

No, you'd expect 0.6% of the population to contain 0.6% of the incarcerated population. That the female half of that population contains 22% of the incarcerated female population means they are overrepresented by 22/0.6 = 37. It is reasonable to segregate by gender because the male prison population outnumbers women by between four and six to one, depending on which recent year you look at.

The point I was making though is the same as saying: Bill Gates walks into a room with 9 other guys. The average wealth is now approx $10 billion, and Bill Gates has approx 10 times the average.
However, it might be more interesting to note that the average of the other 9 guys is $100k and Bill Gates has 1 million times that average.
The distortion caused by an extreme outlier renders a normal average less meaningful as a data point.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:11 pm 
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So Peter Casey wants to stand for the Dail but no party will have him! What are the chances of him trying to set up a party?
As long as he doesn't attract far right candidates, I think there's a gap in the market for a centreish party. He may be a bit of a loose cannon but that's probably what's needed to get the ball rolling.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:17 pm 
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Barmiest Loon wrote:
So Peter Casey wants to stand for the Dail but no party will have him! What are the chances of him trying to set up a party?
As long as he doesn't attract far right candidates, I think there's a gap in the market for a centreish party. He may be a bit of a loose cannon but that's probably what's needed to get the ball rolling.

The likes AAA and PBP were the angry entrants when there a major displacement to the status quo but it looks as if the appetite for new parties has waned.

If he doesn't have anything new to offer other than using a one horse race as an anti-traveler rant then I can't see him having much traction in Irish politics where TDs are pretty strongly tied to their constituencies. Is he really open to being that tied down?

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:40 pm 
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catbear wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:
So Peter Casey wants to stand for the Dail but no party will have him! What are the chances of him trying to set up a party?
As long as he doesn't attract far right candidates, I think there's a gap in the market for a centreish party. He may be a bit of a loose cannon but that's probably what's needed to get the ball rolling.

The likes AAA and PBP were the angry entrants when there a major displacement to the status quo but it looks as if the appetite for new parties has waned.

If he doesn't have anything new to offer other than using a one horse race as an anti-traveler rant then I can't see him having much traction in Irish politics where TDs are pretty strongly tied to their constituencies. Is he really open to being that tied down?


My gut is there was a lot more behind his vote that an anti-traveller sentiment. And I'd guess he'd have better access to funding etc than AAA/PBP.

I do agree that starting a party might well be a step too far for him, it is a pretty full on involvement. But if he raised the funds, he'd have an infrastructure to apply a little polish, some media training, someone to help him speech writing etc and I do think he'd get some traction.

I certainly don't think he's suddenly going to become Taoiseach, but I think a new party that went after his presidential vote would do a hell of a lot better than Renua/Social Dems/AAA/PBP.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:24 pm 
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Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:46 pm 
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ixus wrote:
Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

Which is what?

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:46 pm 
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ixus wrote:
Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

The middle ground is probably better. but not at the expense of the majority and too much pandering to minorities can lead to resentment.
Would it be time to start thinking that we are seeing a possible recreation of the political landscape of the late 1930s?
We all know how well that ended up!

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:36 am 
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catbear wrote:
ixus wrote:
Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

Which is what?


Being told how they should feel and what they should do.

The slope is pretty slippery. I don't blame the strong man or populism (I don't support it either). That's a direct result of the input of governments for the last decade or so.

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The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.”


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:48 am 
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ixus wrote:
catbear wrote:
ixus wrote:
Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

Which is what?


Being told how they should feel and what they should do.

The slope is pretty slippery. I don't blame the strong man or populism (I don't support it either). That's a direct result of the input of governments for the last decade or so.

Well if your government uses the EU to cover up for its own failings eventually the electorate will believe them and vote themselves out.

I don't buy this anti-PC argument. It seems mostly western societal jitters about the rest catching up. Trump with his America First is causing more obstacles than opportunities.

I think people here are projecting way too much onto Casey when traveler related flare ups are a regular staple of Irish public discourse. Bread and circuses.

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