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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:58 am 
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Agreed in the sense I believe this country would veer extreme left before right if it ever came to it.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:14 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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catbear wrote:
ixus wrote:
catbear wrote:
ixus wrote:
Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden...

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.

Which is what?


Being told how they should feel and what they should do.

The slope is pretty slippery. I don't blame the strong man or populism (I don't support it either). That's a direct result of the input of governments for the last decade or so.

Well if your government uses the EU to cover up for its own failings eventually the electorate will believe them and vote themselves out.

I don't buy this anti-PC argument. It seems mostly western societal jitters about the rest catching up. Trump with his America First is causing more obstacles than opportunities.

I think people here are projecting way too much onto Casey when traveler related flare ups are a regular staple of Irish public discourse. Bread and circuses.



It can't be denied however that Ireland's increasing (at least outwardly) liberalization appears to be at odds with current developments everywhere else across the globe. From the US to the Philippines to India to now Brazil, and increasingly across Europe the trend is in the opposition direction.

There's nothing new in it of course. Ireland has always tended to be somewhat idiosyncratic in societal terms and has generally done its own thing without necessarily overly concerning itself with what was occurring elsewhere. I remember my grandparents speaking about an old priest in their village whose catchphrase used to be "it might be the style in London or Paris but it's not the style in Ireland". Apparently it would be received very enthusiastically by his congregation as, presumably, it fed into their sense of themselves as a people apart.

It's possible that Fintan O'Toole et al will play a similar pontificating role for a liberal Ireland cast increasingly adrift in a sea of right leaning European populism over the next couple of decades....until such time as phrases like 'liberal infested backwater' or 'Ballygoforwards' are adopted by the younger generation seeking to rid themselves such outdated modes of thought.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:12 am 
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"Ballygoforwards" I may steal that and claim I invented it :P
It gives just the right impression of halfwit millenial sheep acting like yokels and boiling things down to #Savita #Love


Words like "progressive" "liberal" even "post-modernist" are all laden down with undertones of improvement. There needs to be another label for this ideology which is actually illiberal in its intolerance. At the moment I favour "destructionist" - they want to destroy the current paradigm and replace it.


Lefournier3 wrote:
Madness of Crowds wrote:
My total direct tax (IT + USC + PRSI) went from a low of about 18% in 2008 to about 25% now. It's a rise, but hardly crippling.

I've said it before, the difference between subsistence and sybaritic luxury for a single person is only about €5K a year.


If you were on 18% total tax today, I reckon you would be saving at least 2,500 Euro p.a. , more than halfway to sybaritic luxury! 8DD


Quote:
Sybaritic - Synonyms - luxurious, extravagant, pampered, lavish, self-indulgent, pleasure-seeking, sensual, voluptuous, hedonistic, epicurean, lotus-eating, libertine, debauched, dissolute, decadent, unrestrained, fast-living
"the brothers' opulent and sybaritic lifestyle"


Imagine you're able to lead a hedonistic, debauched, pampered, lavish lifestyle for only €13.69 a day ! You need to turn that into a business. Sandy Lane will go bankrupt. I remember Michael Winner saying years ago he needed £800,000 net to lead a wealthy persons lifestyle.

All I the sybaritic lifestyle I could get for €13.69 would be one drink after work, a Tesco finest ready meal, a giant toblerone, and free internet dirty movies.

Whatever the Casey vote means, Leo would want to be careful. Theresa May didn't understand the rage or seething anger underlying the Brexit vote and got punished despite UKIP's collapse.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:16 am 
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Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Posts: 8751
Location: London, innit
Quote:

Support for Casey reflects rage of those feeling left behind
Businessman seen by many as recognising struggles of post-austerity Ireland

Kitty Holland



I can't read the full piece but it seems Kitty Holland knows why people voted for Casey and it's not because travellers aren't model citizens, no siree!!

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/supp ... 3?mode=amp


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:45 am 
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The bit I saw of Casey, he seemed to want to throw plenty of money at 'fixing' things. This seemed to be funded by raiding the pension reserve fund or more borrowing.

That's not a radical alternative. Next.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:47 am 
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Joined: Apr 4, 2010
Posts: 4717
GameBlame wrote:

Lefournier3 wrote:
Madness of Crowds wrote:
My total direct tax (IT + USC + PRSI) went from a low of about 18% in 2008 to about 25% now. It's a rise, but hardly crippling.

I've said it before, the difference between subsistence and sybaritic luxury for a single person is only about €5K a year.


If you were on 18% total tax today, I reckon you would be saving at least 2,500 Euro p.a. , more than halfway to sybaritic luxury! 8DD


Quote:
Sybaritic - Synonyms - luxurious, extravagant, pampered, lavish, self-indulgent, pleasure-seeking, sensual, voluptuous, hedonistic, epicurean, lotus-eating, libertine, debauched, dissolute, decadent, unrestrained, fast-living
"the brothers' opulent and sybaritic lifestyle"


Imagine you're able to lead a hedonistic, debauched, pampered, lavish lifestyle for only €13.69 a day !


It's very easy, when your default mode is ascetic contentment. :D

Quote:
You need to turn that into a business.


Actually, I don't, since I don't really need the money, but these guys will tell you gratis. :D

http://www.earlyretirementextreme.com

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com

Quote:
I remember Michael Winner saying years ago he needed £800,000 net to lead a wealthy persons lifestyle.

There's an expression to describe people like that, "more money than sense".

Quote:
All I the sybaritic lifestyle I could get for €13.69 would be one drink after work, a Tesco finest ready meal, a giant toblerone, and free internet dirty movies.


Why are you pissing away your money on ready meals when you could make much nicer ones yourself? That's why you're poor. :wink:

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Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


Last edited by Madness of Crowds on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:52 am 
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Posts: 4717
catbear wrote:

I don't buy this anti-PC argument. It seems mostly western societal jitters about the rest catching up. Trump with his America First is causing more obstacles than opportunities.



That's what I've often thought.

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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:03 am 
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superman wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
superman wrote:
Isn't that 47 times for women?
22% of the incarceration for 0.6% of the population allows only 78% for the other 99.4%.

Edit: I see you refer to all women ( including travelers as the comparitor) i think that "population excluding sub-group" is better due to the level of distortion.

No, you'd expect 0.6% of the population to contain 0.6% of the incarcerated population. That the female half of that population contains 22% of the incarcerated female population means they are overrepresented by 22/0.6 = 37. It is reasonable to segregate by gender because the male prison population outnumbers women by between four and six to one, depending on which recent year you look at.

The point I was making though is the same as saying: Bill Gates walks into a room with 9 other guys. The average wealth is now approx $10 billion, and Bill Gates has approx 10 times the average.
However, it might be more interesting to note that the average of the other 9 guys is $100k and Bill Gates has 1 million times that average.
The distortion caused by an extreme outlier renders a normal average less meaningful as a data point.

Ah ok, having a dim moment. You're right of course. Male and female Travellers are 18 and 47 times as likely to be incarcerated as the general population, respectively.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:37 am 
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Peter Casey was just on Radio1.
Was asked if FF continue to reject his application, he said he'll set up a new political party! :)


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:33 pm 
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Now he says he'll top the poll in donegal and start his own party.

It's like we've had our Trump moment, just for the hell of it and it's already being given the kiss of death by shuffling off to Tom Gildea territory.

Casey doesn't give a hoot, he'll have Presidential runner up on his business CV which abroad will make him seem intergel to Irish politics when the truth is far more mundane.

I'm reminded of the teacher who use to go up to the halting site and drag in their kids for the inspectors visit and then boot them out afterwards.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:26 pm 
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Joined: Oct 9, 2009
Posts: 91
This 2010 article was probably the beginning of the end of Morgan Kelly's guru status:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/if-you-thought-the-bank-bailout-was-bad-wait-until-the-mortgage-defaults-hit-home-1.674081

But it is interesting to rembember his (incorrect) prediction:
Quote:
Within five years, both Civil War parties are likely to have been brushed aside by a hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller party

To add to the traveller comments Casey made recently see an article from 2017:
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/peter-casey-we-need-an-urgent-national-debate-on-irexit-from-a-massivelyflawed-eu-35980674.html
Quote:
And, finally, let me say as a businessman who has worked in five continents and lived in America for more than 20 years now, I firmly believe we could do a lot better outside the EU than within.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:55 pm 
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the_wrong_thong wrote:
Quote:
And, finally, let me say as a businessman who has worked in five continents and lived in America for more than 20 years now, I firmly believe we could do a lot better outside the EU than within.

The thing as has been pointed out numerous times to the Brexiters being in the EU hasn't stopped other members exporting more to non-EU members per head of population.

I wonder if anyone will follow up Casey on his support for Brexit, seeing as it's going sooooo well.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:01 pm 
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Economics isn't really Casey's area of expertise.

Away from thinking about a parallel universe where Ireland would be outside the Euro, getting there from here would require the redenomination of 200bn of debt, and that's just the government stuff. It would be an insane move except in the midst of a default.

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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:23 am 
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Out of the loop the past few days, mixing with fellow 'deplorables' down the country who either didn't vote at all or went with Casey. Catching up on the reaction today has been rather enjoyable.

I really liked this line from Ireland's greatest columnist
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/forg ... -1.3678677
Quote:
The strength of angry, bar-stool ranters and “golf club bores” as Casey was described, is that they remain angry and unpolished, frustrating those of us who favour intellect and political pleasantries.


I can't remember the name of the contributor on Radio 1 on Saturday who said that although the exit poll didn't capture socio-economic details of those questioned, she had no doubt that the 21% at that stage who had said they voted for Casey were most likely to be males over the age of 50 with low educational qualifications from rural areas.

Quality stuff


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 Post subject: Re: Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18
PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:10 am 
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FreeFallin wrote:
Out of the loop the past few days, mixing with fellow 'deplorables' down the country who either didn't vote at all or went with Casey. Catching up on the reaction today has been rather enjoyable.

I really liked this line from Ireland's greatest columnist
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/forg ... -1.3678677
Quote:
The strength of angry, bar-stool ranters and “golf club bores” as Casey was described, is that they remain angry and unpolished, frustrating those of us who favour intellect and political pleasantries.


I can't remember the name of the contributor on Radio 1 on Saturday who said that although the exit poll didn't capture socio-economic details of those questioned, she had no doubt that the 21% at that stage who had said they voted for Casey were most likely to be males over the age of 50 with low educational qualifications from rural areas.

Quality stuff


The tone of Colette Fitzpatrick when she said that "rural, old men voted for Casey" on their Saturday evening 5.30 news, is something I will never forget.

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