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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:06 pm 
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jmc wrote:
I suppose because most of the fun stuff is usually lobbed from Vandenberg I tend to think of it as a Lockheed Martin show. I think the McDonald Douglas stuff tends to be Cape Canaveral. Given that these are mostly heavies, and some of the payloads are really really big, I dont see the billionaire toy rocket company operators making much of an inroad into this particular market.


The ULA Delta IV Heavy can send about 25 tons to LEO, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy can send over 60 tons to LEO, for a fraction of the price, the billionaire clearly has the better rockets, not even the Russians or Chinese can match them, and late next year its possible that we will see the upper stage of the BFR being tested

In 2020 Blue Origin will launch the New Glenn with a possible payload of 45 tons to LEO, Blue are also working on a bigger rocket called the New Armstrong, based on the name its Saturn V or BFR sized, the billionaires are winning, longing term I can't see ULA staying in the launch business, Lockheed and Boeing will just build the payloads, plenty of profit in end of the industry

jmc wrote:
I really wish they would launch the heavies at sunset. It would be one hell of a light show. The Minutemans fired at the Marshall islands sometimes lift off around sunset and its a pretty spectacular light show. And those are small rockets. Compared to the heavies. Definitely worth a trip out to Jalama Beach to see that. Or for an even better view, try to get an invite to Hollister Ranch through a friend of a friend.


Yeah I would love to see one, once the SpaceX launch rate goes up in the next few years I plan on making a trip over to watch one

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:33 pm 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
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the dude wrote:
jmc wrote:
I suppose because most of the fun stuff is usually lobbed from Vandenberg I tend to think of it as a Lockheed Martin show. I think the McDonald Douglas stuff tends to be Cape Canaveral. Given that these are mostly heavies, and some of the payloads are really really big, I dont see the billionaire toy rocket company operators making much of an inroad into this particular market.


The ULA Delta IV Heavy can send about 25 tons to LEO, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy can send over 60 tons to LEO, for a fraction of the price, the billionaire clearly has the better rockets, not even the Russians or Chinese can match them, and late next year its possible that we will see the upper stage of the BFR being tested

In 2020 Blue Origin will launch the New Glenn with a possible payload of 45 tons to LEO, Blue are also working on a bigger rocket called the New Armstrong, based on the name its Saturn V or BFR sized, the billionaires are winning, longing term I can't see ULA staying in the launch business, Lockheed and Boeing will just build the payloads, plenty of profit in end of the industry

jmc wrote:
I really wish they would launch the heavies at sunset. It would be one hell of a light show. The Minutemans fired at the Marshall islands sometimes lift off around sunset and its a pretty spectacular light show. And those are small rockets. Compared to the heavies. Definitely worth a trip out to Jalama Beach to see that. Or for an even better view, try to get an invite to Hollister Ranch through a friend of a friend.


Yeah I would love to see one, once the SpaceX launch rate goes up in the next few years I plan on making a trip over to watch one


One launch does not make a platform.

Given the history of the Atlas and Delta series, as well as Ariane (let alone the Russians) I'd like to see the payload insurance rates for commercial loads until the new guys have a track record. Fed payloads are another matter.

Call me cynical but I remember when the Space Shuttle type launch vehicles were touted as the next big thing. Never did work out.

As for ULA I see that s just a short term corp marriage of convenience to ride of the era of the deep pocket billionaires hobby companies. Neither Lockheed nor Douglas can compete short term with people willing to lose billions to finance their hobby but the parent companies have a business time scale perspective measure in decades. So in decades to come I expect the LM and McD/D guys to be still building launch systems long after the current interlopers have been long gone. And I expect the old timers to have picked up anything of value that was developed by the interlopers and to have incorporate it into their product line. Just like they did in the past. These are all companies with corp histories of almost 100 years by this stage. They have survived this long for a very good reason. They tend to think in multi-decade scale strategies. So they never ever should be underestimated. Payload fab makes money but its the launch vehicles that have the real multi use tie in. Which is where the real money is.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:50 pm 
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Posts: 5188
Musk and Tesla settle with the SEC. Think it's fair to say, that this is probably the best possible outcome that Musk could have gotten here. The interesting bits below.
Quote:
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

Musk and Tesla have agreed to settle the charges against them without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations. Among other relief, the settlements require that:

  • Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
  • Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
  • Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
  • Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:10 pm 
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Posts: 5188
It's also rather funny that Tesla shareholders who have done nothing wrong here will have to pay $20m restitution for the actions of their CEO. Will they care? Probably not.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:48 am 
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Joined: Oct 20, 2012
Posts: 1955
jmc wrote:

One launch does not make a platform.


Yeah but 60+ launches does

jmc wrote:
Call me cynical but I remember when the Space Shuttle type launch vehicles were touted as the next big thing. Never did work out.


If you think this is the same as the Shuttle, well then you clearly don't understand whats happening

jmc wrote:
As for ULA I see thats just a short term corp marriage of convenience to ride of the era of the deep pocket billionaires hobby companies. Neither Lockheed nor Douglas can compete short term with people willing to lose billions to finance their hobby but the parent companies have a business time scale perspective measure in decades. So in decades to come I expect the LM and McD/D guys to be still building launch systems long after the current interlopers have been long gone.


No, ULA started was in 2006, two years before SpaceX launched the Falcon 1, ULA was stared to gouge massive amounts of money from the US tax payer, from the start ULA assumed that SpaceX would fail, Musk wasn't a billionaire at the time, so TBF to ULA, the Russians, Europe, China, ect, the clever bet was to assume that SpaceX would fail, once the Falcon 9 reached orbit they should have woke up, the fantasy ideas about SpaceX losing money on every launch gets more outlandish every time they deliver a payload to orbit or beyond

jmc wrote:
And I expect the old timers to have picked up anything of value that was developed by the interlopers and to have incorporate it into their product line. Just like they did in the past. These are all companies with corp histories of almost 100 years by this stage. They have survived this long for a very good reason. They tend to think in multi-decade scale strategies. So they never ever should be underestimated. Payload fab makes money but its the launch vehicles that have the real multi use tie in. Which is where the real money is.


Well if thats the case ULA really need to come up with a better plan then the Vulcan, look up the videos on youtube, now TBF their plans might work, but I just don't see how they can have Lower launch prices than Blue Origin, how the hell can they under cut a rival, if their rival is selling them most important part of the rocket, good luck with that

So if they can't undercut Blue Origin then how will they undercut SpaceX

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:35 am 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4322
the dude wrote:
jmc wrote:

One launch does not make a platform.


Yeah but 60+ launches does

jmc wrote:
Call me cynical but I remember when the Space Shuttle type launch vehicles were touted as the next big thing. Never did work out.


If you think this is the same as the Shuttle, well then you clearly don't understand whats happening

jmc wrote:
As for ULA I see thats just a short term corp marriage of convenience to ride of the era of the deep pocket billionaires hobby companies. Neither Lockheed nor Douglas can compete short term with people willing to lose billions to finance their hobby but the parent companies have a business time scale perspective measure in decades. So in decades to come I expect the LM and McD/D guys to be still building launch systems long after the current interlopers have been long gone.


No, ULA started was in 2006, two years before SpaceX launched the Falcon 1, ULA was stared to gouge massive amounts of money from the US tax payer, from the start ULA assumed that SpaceX would fail, Musk wasn't a billionaire at the time, so TBF to ULA, the Russians, Europe, China, ect, the clever bet was to assume that SpaceX would fail, once the Falcon 9 reached orbit they should have woke up, the fantasy ideas about SpaceX losing money on every launch gets more outlandish every time they deliver a payload to orbit or beyond

jmc wrote:
And I expect the old timers to have picked up anything of value that was developed by the interlopers and to have incorporate it into their product line. Just like they did in the past. These are all companies with corp histories of almost 100 years by this stage. They have survived this long for a very good reason. They tend to think in multi-decade scale strategies. So they never ever should be underestimated. Payload fab makes money but its the launch vehicles that have the real multi use tie in. Which is where the real money is.


Well if thats the case ULA really need to come up with a better plan then the Vulcan, look up the videos on youtube, now TBF their plans might work, but I just don't see how they can have Lower launch prices than Blue Origin, how the hell can they under cut a rival, if their rival is selling them most important part of the rocket, good luck with that

So if they can't undercut Blue Origin then how will they undercut SpaceX


I was talking about heavy lift, the only bit the Feds TLA's care about. Commercial is commercial. Comes and goes. Mostly small potatoes in the bigger scheme of things.

It may not be obvious to outsiders but the US commercial launch business is a small add on (in dollar terms)to the real business of heavy launch TLA payloads and all the ICBM's and SLBM's. Which is the serious part of the space launch business. Whether this is value for money is neither here nor there. For a start the DOD multi decade projects are a bit like central bank money, its a completely different universe where normal accounting logic rules dont really apply. Once heard a funny conversation about trying to apply commercial airframe depreciation rules to military airframes. It was Boeing people, or course. Given how many times a typical B 52 has been rebuilt over the decades is it one frame or actually three. For accounting purposes. Or probably five by this stage. Or how about using the EPA / DOE accounting rules for environmental enhancement due to capital outlay and the credits involved. Using those rules just one ICBM wing could net the DOD several hundred billion in credits due to its deterrence of massive environmental degradation due to Russian nukes going off somewhere in the 48. And so forth. Repeat ad-infinitum.

You're not in Kansas any more. And neither are the ICBMS it seems - mostly in the High Plains nowadays. With a few kept in reserve for second strike capability just up the coast from the Space X facility at Vandenberg. If the shit ever does hit the fan being anywhere within a 200 mile radius of Vandenberg is a very good place to be. Its fully ABM'ed, a multi-layered defense, precisely because of those spare Minuteman III's sitting in those silos as a second strike insurance policy.

This is a very weird parallel universe of which the commercial space launch business is just a small appendage. So the new guys on the block will have their fun for a while and after a decade or so will get folded back into one of the old timers. Who will keep on churning along as they always do on their multi decade military programmes. Just like their Russian and Chinese analogues.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:46 am 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4322
HouseBuyer wrote:
Musk and Tesla settle with the SEC. Think it's fair to say, that this is probably the best possible outcome that Musk could have gotten here. The interesting bits below.
Quote:
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

Musk and Tesla have agreed to settle the charges against them without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations. Among other relief, the settlements require that:

  • Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
  • Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
  • Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
  • Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.


It will be interesting to read the post game analysis but my initial take is - Strike One against Musk. With the SEC lawyers basically giving broad hints to the Fed DA's out there - maybe some of you guys should start doing prelim work for a RICO. Plenty to go on.

This is a long game. The fact the SEC moved so fast indicates that they want it out of the DC arena and out there in Fed Court land. Where the lobbyists and pols cannot run such effective interference. Like they can in DC.

It will be interesting to see if any of the Fed DA's take the bait in the next year or two. As I said, a long game.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:10 pm 
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Joined: Oct 20, 2012
Posts: 1955
jmc wrote:
It may not be obvious to outsiders but the US commercial launch business is a small add on (in dollar terms)to the real business of heavy launch TLA payloads and all the ICBM's and SLBM's. Which is the serious part of the space launch business. Whether this is value for money is neither here nor there. For a start the DOD multi decade projects are a bit like central bank money, its a completely different universe where normal accounting logic rules dont really apply. Once heard a funny conversation about trying to apply commercial airframe depreciation rules to military airframes. It was Boeing people, or course. Given how many times a typical B 52 has been rebuilt over the decades is it one frame or actually three. For accounting purposes. Or probably five by this stage. Or how about using the EPA / DOE accounting rules for environmental enhancement due to capital outlay and the credits involved. Using those rules just one ICBM wing could net the DOD several hundred billion in credits due to its deterrence of massive environmental degradation due to Russian nukes going off somewhere in the 48. And so forth. Repeat ad-infinitum.

You're not in Kansas any more. And neither are the ICBMS it seems - mostly in the High Plains nowadays. With a few kept in reserve for second strike capability just up the coast from the Space X facility at Vandenberg. If the shit ever does hit the fan being anywhere within a 200 mile radius of Vandenberg is a very good place to be. Its fully ABM'ed, a multi-layered defense, precisely because of those spare Minuteman III's sitting in those silos as a second strike insurance policy.

This is a very weird parallel universe of which the commercial space launch business is just a small appendage


Yes exactly, thats why I think ULA will just leave the launch business to SpaceX and Blue Origin, Boeing and Lockheed just don't need to bother being competitive when they can sell hundreds F-35s for $115 million per plane, easy money

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:29 pm 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4322
dso
the dude wrote:
jmc wrote:
It may not be obvious to outsiders but the US commercial launch business is a small add on (in dollar terms)to the real business of heavy launch TLA payloads and all the ICBM's and SLBM's. Which is the serious part of the space launch business. Whether this is value for money is neither here nor there. For a start the DOD multi decade projects are a bit like central bank money, its a completely different universe where normal accounting logic rules dont really apply. Once heard a funny conversation about trying to apply commercial airframe depreciation rules to military airframes. It was Boeing people, or course. Given how many times a typical B 52 has been rebuilt over the decades is it one frame or actually three. For accounting purposes. Or probably five by this stage. Or how about using the EPA / DOE accounting rules for environmental enhancement due to capital outlay and the credits involved. Using those rules just one ICBM wing could net the DOD several hundred billion in credits due to its deterrence of massive environmental degradation due to Russian nukes going off somewhere in the 48. And so forth. Repeat ad-infinitum.

You're not in Kansas any more. And neither are the ICBMS it seems - mostly in the High Plains nowadays. With a few kept in reserve for second strike capability just up the coast from the Space X facility at Vandenberg. If the shit ever does hit the fan being anywhere within a 200 mile radius of Vandenberg is a very good place to be. Its fully ABM'ed, a multi-layered defense, precisely because of those spare Minuteman III's sitting in those silos as a second strike insurance policy.

This is a very weird parallel universe of which the commercial space launch business is just a small appendage


Yes exactly, thats why I think ULA will just leave the launch business to SpaceX and Blue Origin, Boeing and Lockheed just don't need to bother being competitive when they can sell hundreds F-35s for $115 million per plane, easy money


Ah, now I see where you are coming from. So to speak. To me the commercial / science payload part of the business was always a minor side show. Which is reflected in the project / job numbers. Which ULA will let go for the short term. Which in their time scale could be a decade or more.

To me its just one big - the rocket goes up, something may or may not comedown somewhere else - business. The launch tech is pretty much the same. The payload tech can be somewhat different if the payload is suppose to come down again and go bang. But most of the non going bang payload tech is the same. In the US, UK and France most of the launch platform tech jobs required security clearance. In the US the majority of the payload tech jobs required security clearance. This has changed somewhat in the last decade due to the rise of the purely commercial launch platform companies but at least around here launch platform jobs still pretty much means security clearance. Clearance is pretty ubiquitous in some parts of the tech business. On the last heavy duty embedded software team I worked with I was the only one of the ten senior people who did not have security clearance of some sort or other. This was for a mass market consumer electronic product but 8 of the 9 had worked on launch / payload in the past and the ninth was ex military. Worked on some TLA payload stuff he could not even name while in the USAF but he did go very quiet once when I mention one particularly obscure sensor technology in passing. So a hint. Perhaps.

So at least when it comes to actually building stuff my perspective on the commercial / military launch / payload mix and relative size is very dependent on project size / jobs rather than public profile. Not sure how accurate that might be in the bigger picture but my motto is usually - follow the money. And relative expenditure usually gives a good idea of relative size and importance. And for the last few decades that has been mostly military or dual use. Dual use being a very big chunk of it.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:13 pm 
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Posts: 58
I will just leave this here and say nothing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4uji815CoA


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4322
extramild wrote:
I will just leave this here and say nothing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4uji815CoA


Nice find.

But this is a better match. The parallels are much more pronounced...



An ITV documentary from the late 1980's.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:16 am 
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Joined: Dec 19, 2008
Posts: 193
jmc wrote:
extramild wrote:
I will just leave this here and say nothing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4uji815CoA


Nice find.

But this is a better match. The parallels are much more pronounced...



An ITV documentary from the late 1980's.


Just how short tesla stock are you?
The man single handedly forced a huge industry to shift to EVs which only a moron would think was worse than a world full of ICE.
Listening to you drone on about some perceived slight you have against the man is tiresome.

Drop the hammer in a model x P100D in ludicrous mode and report back...
Doing the same in a ICE ferrari is like putting a cassette tape on after.

No matter what happens, the man has left his mark on the world - You don't have to buy his cars or his stock.

JMC does not like Musk - We get it. Next.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:58 am 
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Joined: Aug 19, 2011
Posts: 831
Quote:
The man single handedly forced a huge industry to shift to EVs


Musk is a great sales man, but perhaps he doesn't deserve all the credit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Ghosn

There's some videos on youtube showing the automation used in production of the Nissan leaf, it's quite impressive.

PSA/Citroen/Peugeot also has/had an extensive EV program going back many years.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:57 am 
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Posts: 193
snaps wrote:
Quote:
The man single handedly forced a huge industry to shift to EVs


Musk is a great sales man, but perhaps he doesn't deserve all the credit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Ghosn

There's some videos on youtube showing the automation used in production of the Nissan leaf, it's quite impressive.

PSA/Citroen/Peugeot also has/had an extensive EV program going back many years.



I see your point - But EVs aren't a big deal cos Nissan made the Leaf or PSA chased a few tax breaks in france.
There were plenty of crap electric cars b4 musk came along.

What was different is that he came in at the top end of the market, made it a desired object, and basically forced the german luxury brands to follow, as big beemers and merc were no longer fashionable/saleable. (The germans were too busy trying to choke everyone on Nox and cheat on test scores. They fooled the irish and most european governments to bring in tax breaks for the smelly diesel things.)

Everyone else is playing catchup since.

Tesla may or may not survive (cant see why not with 80k sales in a quarter), but the game is now changed and Musk can take much of the credit for that.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:42 am 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4322
quackquack wrote:
jmc wrote:
extramild wrote:
I will just leave this here and say nothing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4uji815CoA


Nice find.

But this is a better match. The parallels are much more pronounced...



An ITV documentary from the late 1980's.


Just how short tesla stock are you?
The man single handedly forced a huge industry to shift to EVs which only a moron would think was worse than a world full of ICE.
Listening to you drone on about some perceived slight you have against the man is tiresome.

Drop the hammer in a model x P100D in ludicrous mode and report back...
Doing the same in a ICE ferrari is like putting a cassette tape on after.

No matter what happens, the man has left his mark on the world - You don't have to buy his cars or his stock.

JMC does not like Musk - We get it. Next.


I will still be driving gas power cars (petrol to you), as will everyone else, long after the last EV has been sent to a breakers yard somewhere out in the Central Valley.

JMC has seen dot com and other equivalent scams come and go over the last 30 plus years..

JMC has watched CARB (the California Air Resource Board) ram though its anti-car agenda over the last 30 plus years. Been following the story since the tail end of the Tom Quinn era. There would be no EV's without CARB and it very very expensive political agenda.

JMC has had to pay thousands of dollars in taxes and subsidies to finance these EV/renewable energy scams.

JMC actually knows the area in Bel Air where Musk lives. And what kind of people live there. Looks like I'll be driving through Sepulvada Pass in the next week or two. Shall I give him the finger from the San Diego Freeway as I pass?..

And your qualifications on this particular multi billion dollar scam are? Which is all it is.

Those guys at Enron, Lehman Bros, AIG, LTCM, and even Anglo Irish Bank also have a very big impact on the world. Scams one and all too.

So your point was? The state of California on its own has more oil reserves than Iraq (although even the Bureau of Mines has been recently nobbled it seems.) Why do we need very expensive EV's, the Model 3 is a $60K Civic, that require huge subsides and are part of an agenda to vastly inflate the price of energy. By a factor of three at the moment.

Its scams all the way down. In the state of California if its Green its invariably a scam. Unless its a State Forest. Which are really great and those guys deserve a much bigger budget..


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