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 Post subject: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Ireland
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:59 am 
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Simon Covney (Tánaiste) - "I happen to be somebody who is quite liberal on immigration. I believe that Ireland has been enhanced significantly by the fact that so many people who were not born in Ireland are now part of our society and economy, but of course we need to also ensure that we can manage the numbers that are being welcomed and that they can integrate appropriately.

We estimate over the next 20 years that the population of Ireland will certainly grow by an extra million people. Linked to that estimate is that half of that number won't have been born in Ireland. I think that will be a really good thing for Irish society but we do need to manage it carefully so we don't allow the politics of migration to play a big part in Irish politics because I think it pulls us down a dangerous direction."

Worth a listen to the full question and response here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... Xrm1mZSfI8


What multiplier should be applied to get the realistic number? :nin

Quote:
NEW YORK, 17 March (DESA) -- The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) has released a new report titled “Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?”. Replacement migration refers to the international migration that a country would need to prevent population decline and population ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates.

17 MARCH 2000 - NEW REPORT ON REPLACEMENT MIGRATION ISSUED BY UN POPULATION DIVISION

https://www.un.org/press/en/2000/200003 ... 4.doc.html

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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Ire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:18 pm 
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It's not a confirmation. He's only quoting recent estimates.
from an ESRI report(Chapter 4) 2017 forecasting 640k - 1.1m population increase by 2030
Max 450k through immigration, rest of the 1.1m from people living longer and increased fertility rates


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:37 pm 
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When the big bang EU enlargement happened back in 2004, the Govt of the day estimated we'd get 20,000 people in total coming to Ireland from the likes of Poland, Romania etc.
That amount arrived in the first few months alone.

So when I hear figures of 500k, I'm assuming it will be double that as they only thing happening here is downplaying the likely outcome.


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:52 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
When the big bang EU enlargement happened back in 2004, the Govt of the day estimated we'd get 20,000 people in total coming to Ireland from the likes of Poland, Romania etc.
That amount arrived in the first few months alone.

So when I hear figures of 500k, I'm assuming it will be double that as they only thing happening here is downplaying the likely outcome.

When the M50 was first opened it was envisaged that at the projections at the time it would not need expansion until 2015 I think. Well that didn't work out.

I wouldn't discount that trends can go in reverse, as they did in after the bust, but demographics will actually lead to competition for emigrants from a dwindling pool.

Anyway there's enough of these treads about demographic changes to make a jumbo tread about it and the effects on migration.

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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:52 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
When the big bang EU enlargement happened back in 2004, the Govt of the day estimated we'd get 20,000 people in total coming to Ireland from the likes of Poland, Romania etc.
That amount arrived in the first few months alone.

So when I hear figures of 500k, I'm assuming it will be double that as they only thing happening here is downplaying the likely outcome.

I think your wrong on a number of counts.
1 - Romania joined in 2007
the projections were between 20 to 45 k per year
Project was for 5.2 m in 2021, which by accident is what were heading for


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:21 pm 
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propertyspire wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
When the big bang EU enlargement happened back in 2004, the Govt of the day estimated we'd get 20,000 people in total coming to Ireland from the likes of Poland, Romania etc.
That amount arrived in the first few months alone.

So when I hear figures of 500k, I'm assuming it will be double that as they only thing happening here is downplaying the likely outcome.

I think your wrong on a number of counts.
1 - Romania joined in 2007
the projections were between 20 to 45 k per year
Project was for 5.2 m in 2021, which by accident is what were heading for


Ok, I got Romania wrong but I could have named several other countries who came in with Poland. Nit picking much?

Looks like I got the 20,000 figure wrong too, as you did yourself....I should have said 2,000!!!
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/lett ... -1.1088489
Quote:
In a European Commission paper published in March of last year (available on my website, www.derossa.com)...."The early years flow from the eight Central and East European candidate countries aspiring to accede in 2003 are estimated at 70,000 to 150,000 workers per year." It says further that approximately 76 per cent of these will go to Germany and Austria. So, even if we take the higher estimate of 150,000 workers migrating each year to the EU15, Ireland will be host to a tiny fraction of these, probably not more than 2,000.


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:40 pm 
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In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:14 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.

Exactly.
The UKs problem with immigration started before the new EU members joined.
Image

Looking at the figures today non-EU migration to the UK continues to grow while EU migration decreases.
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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:18 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
Looking at the figures today non-EU migration to the UK continues to grow while EU migration decreases.


Its like they want to punish the leave voters, very foolish

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Last edited by the dude on Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.


Really?

There are always pro's and con's in life. From a numbers point of view in terms of the property market, the 2004 accession states expansion certainly fuelled Property Bubble B as a segway out of the tail end of Property Bubble A which suited Politicians and everyone nicely until it didn't, a pro that ended up as a con that has had innumerable long lasting negative conseicnes for millions of people, but hey that's hyper population expansion for you, "we are where we are!"

However dealing without the context of the link in the OP, it doesn't seem to be the point one bit, all I heard was Africa, Africa, Africa, very little talk about our fellow EU citizens of which there is a multi million sized pool of unemployed youth untapped it might seem with pre-existing ability to intra-their-asses from EU state to state, perhaps Europe didn't train enough rocket scientists in it's 3rd level institutes. :x

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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:16 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.


If they're benefits for us, and overall I think it's been beneficial, then there are drawbacks for eastern European countries with already declining populations?

Like living in an 80s Ireland


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:34 pm 
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Latest data on UK migration. The EU migration they can't really control is falling while the migration from outside the EU, which they can control, continues to increase :lol:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46384417
Quote:
Figures show net migration - the difference between how many people came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many left - was 273,000 last year.
EU net migration was 74,000 in the year to the end of June 2018, while non-EU net migration was 248,000...
...The data also showed non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004.


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:06 am 
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propertyspire wrote:
Evil_g wrote:
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.


If they're benefits for us, and overall I think it's been beneficial, then there are drawbacks for eastern European countries with already declining populations?

Like living in an 80s Ireland


Swings and roundabouts, Poland is booming, a lot of educated and professional Poles can boost their own country when moving back.
Romania is doing relatively okay too, our place has most of the IT work done in Romania not just for the EU but for our global business . Mostly it works over the long term.


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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:03 am 
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propertyspire wrote:
Evil_g wrote:
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.


If they're benefits for us, and overall I think it's been beneficial, then there are drawbacks for eastern European countries with already declining populations?

Like living in an 80s Ireland

There's probably rural depopulation, but the cities, at least in Poland, are booming. It has pretty much shrugged off the departures and I reckon the departure rate from Poland will be low in years to come, albeit like the Irish I think they have the taste for it at this stage!

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 Post subject: Re: Tánaiste Simon Covney Confirms 500,000 migrants for Irel
PostPosted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:53 pm 
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Is it true that the UN Pact on replacement migration seeks to criminalise any criticism of migration?


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