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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:46 pm 
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BuffaloSoldier wrote:
jcsmith wrote:
Great. Now I've got to start worrying about Keytrade as well.


Just thinking the same thing. Imagine if Keytrade got wiped while Anglo was still standing :shock:


then you'd have to consider the relative strengths of the Irish deposit guarantee versus the Belgian one :x

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:17 pm 
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Quote:
EU commissioners have a "profound sense of foreboding" about Greece and the future of the eurozone, a leaked account of a meeting has suggested.

The document, seen by BBC News, said this was in reaction to the "damning failure" of eurozone ministers to agree a new bail-out for Greece last night.

The internal memo was written by an official who attended Wednesday's gathering of commissioners in Brussels.

The author warned that the markets would now "smell blood".

The European Commission said it would not comment "on anonymous interpretations of meetings".

The document said that the planned second Greek financial rescue package on top of last year's 110bn-euro (£161bn; £98bn) bail-out would dominate the forthcoming European Council meetings next week.

It added that any default on Greek government debt - as espoused by Germany - would leave the Greek banks insolvent and "threaten the viability of the ECB [European Central Bank] itself" which owns 49bn euros of Greek bonds.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13781390

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:30 pm 
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Here's the bit I find funny, PtG:
Quote:
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso was said to be "clearly more worried now than he was a year ago when the sovereign debt crisis first broke".

Presumably, he'll cheer up when he sees the next butterfly flutter by...

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:50 pm 
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Greece 10 year still racing towards 18%. Irish 10 year passed 10.5%. Meanwhile the Greek government is close to collapse, the PM is offering to step down in favour of a unity government - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... er-sharing


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:57 pm 
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Baffling how the Greek people believe a strike is in their best interests right now? Does it not just add huge weight to the hardline approach that says there should be no bailout or default type mechanism as the people plain and simple wont make the necessary reforms to make it a policy option.

Seems to me strikes etc will only make the case for Troika witholding funds, a swifter desent to full on default and an exit for greece from the eurozone and down the road the Eu and into the economic wilderness.


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:25 pm 
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The air strike today in Greece (the latest of a good few) is not going to do much for tourism...

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:42 pm 
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Jaysus! It really is endgame when the IMF call in air strikes.

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:50 pm 
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It looks increasingly like a showdown between the elected and the appointed. I don't see how the appointed can win. Schauble and the Dutch actually have a mandate to say yes or no to a bailout. The technocrats got it wrong last year and will have to give way. And that can only lead to resignations. Rehn, Barroso, Trichet et al. will end up going. Draghi probably spoke too soon.

How come Sarkozy is so quiet ?


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:52 pm 
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coc wrote:
Jaysus! It really is endgame when the IMF call in air strikes.


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 7:35 pm 
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:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:59 pm 
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Pretty scary report by Paul Mason in Athens on Newsnight just now. He was saying that in the event of a Greek default her banks would probably collapse, exposing European banks to high levels of Greek public, private and banking debt. He reports that this is making people seriously consider how close we are to a Lehaman's event.

And at the risk exposing my ignorance of the nuances involved, I do wonder what the hell the Greek protesters are complaining about. That they continue to enjoy a standard of living they can't afford? Their public service is by all accounts more expensive than ours, tax evasion there is endemic, corruption at all levels of public life would make the Irish gombeen class blush, their economy is, appropriately, as nimble as an oil tanker. Why does Greece or Ireland think they deserve things that, say, Turkish people, Lebanese people, Columbian people don't have because they can't afford them? What makes Paddy and Stavros so arrogant?

Whoo-ho! Nicolas Taleb coming up....


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:03 pm 
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Larry wrote:
.....
And at the risk exposing my ignorance of the nuances involved, I do wonder what the hell the Greek protesters are complaining about. .....

I guess they understand the game:

Fuck someone over or be fucked over.

Choose.


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:17 pm 
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What Goes Up... wrote:
Larry wrote:
.....
And at the risk exposing my ignorance of the nuances involved, I do wonder what the hell the Greek protesters are complaining about. .....

I guess they understand the game:

Fuck someone over or be fucked over.

Choose.



The Greeks can fuck people over till they're blue in the face, but I fail to see how that changes the fact that they can't make ends meet from day to day. As long as a country's Expenditure > Revenue I can't help feeling it is arrogance to expect that situation to be sustained by someone else's money. And on a more practical level, once your budget is under control you are in a much better position to renounce odious debt.


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:07 am 
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Incredibly volatile markets this pm. Even energy (oil ) down hugely for no other discernible reason than Eur/USD fluctuation


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 Post subject: Re: End game Europe approaching.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:10 am 
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Well they're ('the Greeks') probably looking around them and seeing their versions of guys like Denis O'Brien, who I read somewhere this week saw his Digicell profits increase by something in the region of €100 milion in the year ending March 2011 (not long after having been "criticised" by the Moriarty Tribunal) , and they just may be coming to the conclusion that the game is rigged.

It doesnt negate your points re poorer countries but to quote sporting parlance, "you can only beat whats put in front of you".

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