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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:20 pm 
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Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:53 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?

We don't know yet what level of border control, if any will be required past March next year because the UK still doesn't know what relationship it wants with the EU 25 months after starting the two year countdown clock to leaving the bloc.

If March rolls around next year without an trade agreement or even transition towards a trade agreement, then the UK becomes as external to us as any non-EU/EEA/EFTA member. If we let UK goods enter our EU market without customs charges then any country could sue for the same access under WTO rules. Same applies to traffic going the other way. Considering the UK only accounts for 11% and falling of our export market, our EU market is far more important as we actually export more to Belgium than the UK.

Also too is the certification of UK exports to the EU. If the UK doesn't accept EU food quality controls then we have only their word that they're complying. Consider that 90% of their vets in the meat and dairy are EU immigrants then you can see where standards will start slipping just with staff shortages alone!

If you remember the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 cooperation between governments was crucial in controlling the outbreak, the general countryside shutdown in ireland contained the problem to just one farm, whereas Northern Ireland had been more affected. If EU standards and quality aren't been adhered to after March 2019 then all UK produce will have to undergo the same kind of onsite verification that Argentina signed up to allow their beef be sold in the EU again.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:33 am 
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Quote:
]
mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?]


Unless the UK caves entirely, an act which would, based on current sentiment, be political suicide, there will either be a hard border or a dilution of the Union.

This will be insisted upon by the EU, because to do otherwise and allow one of the pillar states cecede without seeking to impose serious economic consequences on it, would be to pave the way for the imminent demise of the entire European project in its current aspirational superstate (and beyond) phase. Such a scenario would herald the likely secession of Italy and possibly Hungary and Poland within one or two electoral cycles (IMO).

That Paddy can't get his little head around the fact that the same Germans and others who fiscally rogered him on behalf of 'the Morkesh' a few short years ago, (and who continue to roger his children) doesn't actually give a fuck about farmers in Fermanagh or Monaghan or indeed about a minor league peace process in a statelet with a smaller population than Berlin or indeed Bucharest is neither here nor there.... Stockholm syndrome how are ya.....but what would you expect from a ruling class who cared more about the price of their fucking houses than they did about the generation from whom they stole a decade and more.

Of course the most likely way out of such a hard border debacle would of course be for the North to enter into some form of arrangement with the rest of the island beyond the UK. But currently the political numbers are not favourable toward such an outcome. Nontheless it is one or the other i.e. Hard border or a softening/break up of the Union.

In my opinion the EU will favour whichever option seeks to humiliate the UK more i.e. The notion that they care less about Ireland is laughable and is only capable of being believed by a nation with the collective mentality of an abused child or battered wife i.e. 'he has changed' . So the EU's preferred outcome will depend on where they view lies the most potential for ritual political and economic humiliation of the U.K. Of course whether or not they will be in a position to achieve their objective remains to be seen. What's not in doubt however is that the manouvreing around the Irish border has littlw or nothing to do with safeguarding the interests of the Irish people.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:27 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?

The English do not care about the impact of a border in Ireland. For the tories, a hard border would trash the Anglo-Irish agreement, resulting in a return to warring camps in Ulster. This would be an ideal outcome for the Tories, as it would guarantee electoral majorities.

The guarantee of talks failure and a hard border is also the end game of the hard brexiteers and their Russian backers. Personally, a number of them stand to gain financially like Mogg who has positioned his off shore companies to benefit.

While the EU is unsympathetic to the problem child of the UK, it is tied in collective decision-making. The need for unanimity on a withdrawal agreement, means there is limited scope for maneuver.

The English want a hard border, but to blame the EU for it.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:00 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Quote:
]
mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?]


Unless the UK caves entirely, an act which would, based on current sentiment, be political suicide, there will either be a hard border or a dilution of the Union.

Operation Banner essentially took up where the retreat from Aden ended, many who had fought the last withdrawal from far empire moved on to fight in the near empire. I doubt the UK could deploy 20.000 troops in NI now like they did in 1970, especially when contingency planning for a hard Brexit included pulling back field generators from Afghanistan just to keep the lights on in NI.

The hard brexiters don't have plans, only aspirations. One EU official said of the Checkers paper that it could be mistaken for an EU membership application! :D

The troubles were the British governments attempt to exert its authority by force, in that the GFA was a UK surrender.

The Loyalist are at the core of the Brexit fantasy. They're a cargo culture to the British Empire, a time when the UK was a terms giver and not a terms taker. Trashing the GFA won't bring back the empire, but as a cult they see no other way to exist. In many ways the GFA is the pin that's keeping the UK together. Pull it out and dominos fall.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:12 am 
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All the knives are out on the Sunday front pages:

  • Betrayal of Brexit (Sunday Express)
    • Rees-Mogg says PM has broken trust of public
    • Boris Johnson is preparing a bombshell speech over resignation
  • Ex-minister: I quit over secret plan to foil Brexit (Sunday Telegraph)
  • Davis brands PM 'dishonest' over his Brexit alternative (The Sunday Times)
  • Mandelson joins Brexiters with attack on May's EU 'humiliation' (The Observer)
  • May: Back me or there'll be no Brexit (The Mail on Sunday)

What a mess! The Brexiteers are incandescent. Even Labour Remainers think May's approach is the worst of all worlds. And those in between, the people backing May and soft Brexit, are flogging a dead horse as her "Alt Max Fac" can't possible be acceptable to the EU. But at least you can always rely on the Brit press to twist the knife.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:20 am 
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Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:44 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.


That's not a bad article but it's still quite amusing to see the British right on left/liberal chattering classes who have spent decades shitting on and denigrating their own country and society finally coming around to the realization that their incessantly negative labeling of Britain may actually be about to become reality. I'm reminded of the English work colleagues who lectured incessantly about the evils of the various privileges they enjoyed vis a vis non white Europeans etc etc being outraged by the Brexit result mainly on the basis of the possibility of their visa free travel to Europe being taken away ie. That same 'privilege' being reduced somewhat.

The forces behind Trump appear intent on dismantling what was the post WW2 global hegemony in which Europeans got to live the good life on the back of American military might......on the understanding that those same Europeans basically staying away from anything that resembled any form of political extremism, be it right or left leaning.

Someone within the American regime (possibly an element within the military who didn't share Hillary Clintons love for multiple simultaneous invasions and wars) may have decided to pull the plug on that particular arrangement. Ultimately , what many within the echo chamber that constitutes public discourse across Western Europe appear not to be aware of is that the world beyond Western Europe has changed immeasurably over the past decade. From Phillipines to India to Russia to China, right across the muslim world and now to the USA, the movement has been in the opposite direction to that of Western Europe. Western Europe, with its ever softening societal norms, while still the best place to live (as per the reasoning behind the unprecedented levels of inward migration) is actually the anomaly in global political terms.

Who's to say therefore that the US military (or whoever is pulling the strings) hasnt taken a look at a hungry, ever growing China, a strengthening Russia and a fattening, softening Western Europe and decided that it's future interests lie somewhere other than where they have lain since 1945? Perhaps, from a longer term perspective, an alliance with Russia (if achievable) in opposition to the Chinese (the coming threat) would prove more beneficial than the maintenance of a one sided relationship with an EU bloc that appears to be in decline and which offers very little militarily? Indeed, if Russia is on board as an ally, then the need for strong allies in Western Europe becomes less of an imperative.

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term.....like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:51 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term.....like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point

Hmm, probably only if you think there's a first movers advantage in being below Puerto Rico in the US pecking order.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:31 am 
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Trump is a weird sort of puppet with far more strings attached than is normal for puppet....this by way of explaining the contortions he goes through daily or even hourly. The white house is full of whackjob puppeteers that he personally hired to do the pulling.

In the end the Chinese will hit his weak spot (probably Iowa soybean farmers to be precise) and his 8 year reich plan will implode along with the soybean industry. Here we'll keep the head down quietly until the cunt has gone. :)

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