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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:29 pm 
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Location: North Dublin
Was just looking at daft to see what's going on in my estate. Houses with same size and level of renovation / refurb required are now asking around 15-25K more than I went sale agreed in July 2008 (bought and got the keys Sept 2nd 2008).
not sure how far from that peak that was, but at the time similar houses were in the market with 485K asking (they didn't sell at that though).
I paid 425K at the time, just a few weeks before the proverbial was really hitting the fan.

At the bottom, same houses went for around 280-300K, albeit only very very few were on the market at the time.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:43 am 
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More price drops than price hikes in prime Dublin areas in first six months

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... refox-b-ab


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:21 am 
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KOR101 wrote:
More price drops than price hikes in prime Dublin areas in first six months

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/ ... refox-b-ab


I had a look at CSO figures:

Dublin house prices up just 1.9% Jan to May
Dublin apt prices up just 0.8% Jan to May


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Lads,

Yizzer dangling temptations in front of me there. :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:25 pm 
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It looks like a bit of a plateau now in Dublin. The next month or two of data from CSO will likely confirm it.

Seller expectations are being forced to re-correct to what buyers can afford as the CB rules keep lending in check.


Short term I can see:

-Banks forced to lower mortgage rates and offer more cash back/legal cost incentives to meet their loan targets.

-Govt put under pressure by interest groups to circumvent CB rules, like they did with the 20K FTB new build grant.

-TDs and interest groups asking CB to loosen their rules again.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:48 pm 
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How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:03 pm 
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“May” being the optimum word :)


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:17 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.
And put their money where?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:17 am 
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KOR101 wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.
And put their money where?


They bought much lower than now and can pocket a nice profit with the CGT exemption.

However current rental levels in Dublin (most bottom feeders bought lots of apartments like Bernards Elm Park or the Islandbridge complex) mean that their current rent rolls, and the rate of return on capital deployed, is very tasty right now.

I would think most are pulling in a 10% annual return, or more, on that basis.

They ain't gonna dump these and go long on a 3% bond instead, although there is a currency risk as many are US$ investors. So I think that only a flood (or a threatened flood) of supply in the GDA will make them review their long positions with a view to cashing in.

And there is no such realistic supply threat in the pipeline because relative to demand we are building fuck all in the GDA right now and not much more in Cork and nothing at all in Galway. This dismal holding pattern shows no sign of breaking down.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:57 pm 
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@2Pack

Do you see prices holding steady in Dublin, or even a return of general inflation coming in?
It looks like I will need a bigger gaff in the new year, but I thought things might start to cool so no rush.
What says the oracle?


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