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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:41 pm 
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Well now.... as I predicted 70 Labour MPs have rebelled and voted with the tories against 'watering down' Brexit.

Again, the anti-Brexit side might have all the media coverage but on the ground they are the weaker party.

The resolution to the Ireland problem btw is a UI outside the EU. Could you swallow that?

I'm sure there'll be the usual 'voices of reason' with their prolific posting, poo-pooing any challenge to the 'Statist Quo', but you have to start from where you are, not from where you'd like to be: the populace broadly supports Brexit but the electoral maths overwhelmingly supports it.
Ignore the civil service/establishment bots and start looking at the real opportunities and difficulties Ireland will have to face.

As you were.....


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:55 am 
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Sosthenes wrote:
The resolution to the Ireland problem btw is a UI outside the EU. Could you swallow that?


Please explain. If you have a United Ireland (as a fully acknowledged state of its own, I assume?) it does not matter if it is in or out of the EU (well, simply put anyways).

If your UI just means status quo, i.e., no (visible) internal border then you are essentially saying that all of Ireland should join the UK, or align it self fully with the UK, for something like a small EU-like single market covering the jurisdictions of UK and ROI.

Is that what you mean?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:32 am 
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I can see the contradictions. Amendment 25 commits to there being no hard border in Ireland, giving Ireland a veto on any deal the UK makes on that matter. At the same time they voted to rule out EEA membership, which essentially means a hard EU/UK border in Ireland.

I was astounded that the border amendment was nodded through without a vote. Surely the DUP would have objected to a commitment to compromise a hard Brexit in Ireland.

All yesterday did was solidify the contradictions.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:09 am 
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https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... nd-brexit/
Quote:
Reuters spoke to senior executives at 12 of the largest banks in London, including the five biggest British banks, and found not one of them privately thought the plan would ever be accepted by the EU.

They are resigned to a deal that will give more limited access.

"I don't know anyone who really thinks this has a realistic chance, the EU has made it clear they won't accept it. It is now time to be more realistic about what we can negotiate," a senior executive at one of Britain's biggest banks said.

If the finance industry does abandon mutual recognition this would mark its second major climb-down.
>>>


Another good article with enough words in it to give a rounded sense of the issue.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:27 am 
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Location: London, innit
Rees Mogg's Somerset Capital has set up in Dublin (legally etc at least). Go figure....


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:04 pm 
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slasher wrote:
Rees Mogg's Somerset Capital has set up in Dublin (legally etc at least). Go figure....


Capital carries no flag

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:20 pm 
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tulip wrote:
slasher wrote:
Rees Mogg's Somerset Capital has set up in Dublin (legally etc at least). Go figure....


Capital carries no flag

ash yes
I wouldnt expect anything else from Mogg but locating in the wild west of financial management.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:21 pm 
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Sosthenes wrote:
Well now.... as I predicted 70 Labour MPs have rebelled and voted with the tories against 'watering down' Brexit.

Again, the anti-Brexit side might have all the media coverage but on the ground they are the weaker party.

The resolution to the Ireland problem btw is a UI outside the EU. Could you swallow that?

I'm sure there'll be the usual 'voices of reason' with their prolific posting, poo-pooing any challenge to the 'Statist Quo', but you have to start from where you are, not from where you'd like to be: the populace broadly supports Brexit but the electoral maths overwhelmingly supports it.
Ignore the civil service/establishment bots and start looking at the real opportunities and difficulties Ireland will have to face.

As you were.....


UI will not be necessary at this point. The British are under severe pressure to place the border in the Irish Sea. Barnier has asked HMG to use their superior Max Fac tech to ensure that the sea border is seamless and frictionless. NI will be in the EU regulatory space but will remain part of the UK.

As Barnier says, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for NI, but for the rest of the UK...Brexit means Brexit.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:09 am 
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... er-worries
Quote:
Europe is fast losing interest in the Brexit soap – it has bigger worries
Andrew Rawnsley
Faced with challenges that threaten the EU’s very existence, continental leaders have little patience left for Britain’s baffling theatrics
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:15 am 
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Saibhreas wrote:
Sosthenes wrote:
Well now.... as I predicted 70 Labour MPs have rebelled and voted with the tories against 'watering down' Brexit.

Again, the anti-Brexit side might have all the media coverage but on the ground they are the weaker party.

The resolution to the Ireland problem btw is a UI outside the EU. Could you swallow that?

I'm sure there'll be the usual 'voices of reason' with their prolific posting, poo-pooing any challenge to the 'Statist Quo', but you have to start from where you are, not from where you'd like to be: the populace broadly supports Brexit but the electoral maths overwhelmingly supports it.
Ignore the civil service/establishment bots and start looking at the real opportunities and difficulties Ireland will have to face.

As you were.....


UI will not be necessary at this point. The British are under severe pressure to place the border in the Irish Sea. Barnier has asked HMG to use their superior Max Fac tech to ensure that the sea border is seamless and frictionless. NI will be in the EU regulatory space but will remain part of the UK.

As Barnier says, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for NI, but for the rest of the UK...Brexit means Brexit.


Hard choices for Arlene.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:50 pm 
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Again, Brexit is paying dividends on the ground for Joe Sterling;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... eason-ends
Quote:
London house prices fell the most since the beginning of the year in June as the capital’s property market continued to lag behind the rest of the country.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1JE0WN
Quote:
British households enjoyed the fastest growth in employment income in at least nine years in June, according to a survey that may give the Bank of England concern that underlying inflation pressures are rising.


Theres no mystery here.
The Brexit vote will look like a work of prescient genius in 10 years.

Remember the cause of Brexit (and other electoral insurrections in the EU) is not in the net effect of immigration on the economy but its impact at the margins on living costs and wages.
Coming to a by-election near you?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:14 pm 
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Posts: 6149
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Sosthenes wrote:
Again, Brexit is paying dividends on the ground for Joe Sterling;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... eason-ends
Quote:
London house prices fell the most since the beginning of the year in June as the capital’s property market continued to lag behind the rest of the country.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1JE0WN
Quote:
British households enjoyed the fastest growth in employment income in at least nine years in June, according to a survey that may give the Bank of England concern that underlying inflation pressures are rising.


Theres no mystery here.
The Brexit vote will look like a work of prescient genius in 10 years.

Remember the cause of Brexit (and other electoral insurrections in the EU) is not in the net effect of immigration on the economy but its impact at the margins on living costs and wages.
Coming to a by-election near you?


If it proves to be a success, then surely others will follow?

Especially non-Euro countries such as Poland or Hungary.

Italy is trickier but its probably only one election cycle away from being mooted seriously there also.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:48 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
If it proves to be a success, then surely others will follow?

Especially non-Euro countries such as Poland or Hungary.

Italy is trickier but its probably only one election cycle away from being mooted seriously there also.


Well yes - I suppose by definition - if it proves a success others would want to follow.

My point was more look to the margins.
Very clearly in Ireland with thousands of empty and unbuilt homes, mortgage arrears and soaring homelessness, the margins are being mightily squeezed.
Remember the Nice treaty failed initially to pass by 53/47... not a million miles from the Brexit figures.

It'll be interesting to see the effect of QE tapering has on the Irish economy and political landscape over the coming year....


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:50 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/17/europe-losing-interest-brexit-soap-it-has-bigger-worries
Quote:
Europe is fast losing interest in the Brexit soap – it has bigger worries
Andrew Rawnsley
Faced with challenges that threaten the EU’s very existence, continental leaders have little patience left for Britain’s baffling theatrics
>>>


This is an increasingly important point. Reading some of the UK and listening to their politicians, they think Brexit is the biggest thing on the EU agenda - as though everyone else is as obsessed as they are. It's very important, no doubt, but so is the migration crisis, trade ward crisis, and all the other crises popping up in Germany, Italy, Greece (still), along with how to deal with governments in Hungary and Poland who ignore lots of fundamental bits of the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:58 am 
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Emergency EU meeting on migration this Sunday to hammer out an EU harmonious response as serious fissures appear.
I'd say a lot of Brexiteers are looking smugly on as EU struggle with this


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