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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:10 pm 
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taipeir wrote:
And 51.8% is not greater numbers than ever seen before...Rubbish.

That's a common trope of their's relying on the fact that the turnout for the Brexit referendum was higher than for any previous poll. Ignoring the fact that in a time of consistent population growth you expect to see growth in the electorate and therefore growth in the absolute electoral turnout. It conveniently ignores percentage turnout.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:11 pm 
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Ian Dunt on the brexit white paper published today:

Quote:
To jumble up the Brexit jargon, it is cakeism-minus. They have a cake, they have eaten it, some of it is still magically on the plate, and the rest is being vomited up on the floor.
....
Quite quickly this descends into badly-written cyberpunk. "This could include exploring how machine learning and artificial intelligence could allow traders to automate the collection and submission of data required for customs declarations," it says at one point, as if the civil servant writing it got bored and just thought they'd chuck in as much crazy nonsense as possible.


http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/12/if-this-is-all-the-government-has-for-its-brexit-white-paper


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:10 am 
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Quote:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/12/donald-trump-says-boris-johnson-would-make-great-prime-minister/

Boris Johnson would make “a great prime minister” because “he’s got what it takes”, Donald Trump has said just days after the former foreign secretary quit Theresa May’s Cabinet.

The US President said he was “very saddened” to see Mr Johnson leave the Government because he is “a very talented guy” for whom “I have a lot of respect”.

However Mr Johnson’s successor as Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, was doing “a terrible job” and was failing the capital over terrorism and crime, he said.

He also controversially said immigration had “changed the fabric of Europe”.

And he admitted that he “feels unwelcome” in London because of mass protests organised to disrupt his visit.

I suppose it was time for Boris to get some payback from Trump regarding the sycophantic praise that he lavished upon him last month.
Quote:
“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump. I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness.”

Make no mistake here though. Regarding the timing, and the comments themselves - none of this was accidental. For Boris to attack May and the White Paper through a foreign government just days after resigning from the cabinet merely highlights the disarray that the Conservative party are in. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks, it seems inevitable that there will be a showdown between May and the hard-Brexiteers.

The cover of The Sun where the comments were written is rather illuminating.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:49 am 
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My prediction that May would be gone by the end of the week is looking shaky. But I reckon the one about the White Paper not impressing the EU is solid. The WP is delusional and suggests things that the EU couldn't possibly offer.

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86930

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:10 pm 
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She's hanging on so far. Will see what the reaction to the White Paper is after the Trump circus has left town. His comments could go either way - plenty of people might prefer not to align themselves with him.

Weekends are a good time for backbench conspiracy so maybe they'll try getting the signatures they need to force a contest. They would probably still lose though but it might be cathartic for May. She could do with a win - can she call a vote of confidence in herself?!

Depends also how much shit Brussels smears on the White Paper or if they stick with 'It's a start, now let's talk' - which seems to be Dublin's line.

I'd like to see Ress-Mogg or Davis or Johnson publish an alternative White Paper. Any chance of that?



Came across this excellent video for the first time. It's excellent in the sense that it's nicely done and you can see how it could be appealing as long as you have almost no prior knowledge and don't think it through at all. Stating the most obvious flaw, all the money flows out - none flows in. People, on the other hand, flow in but never out.

Too late complaining about this now, obviously, but I don't think enough has been done to counter this even two years on. Plenty of people just think May is stubbornly denying them all that good stuff - the roads, hospitals, schools, research (bonus LOL for that one - the UK is brilliant at winning EU research funds, which is why it wants to stay in Horizon, the ERC, COST and so on). It's as though she's just being a dick, for reasons unknown or because she's part of an elite conspiracy.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:56 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Too late complaining about this now, obviously, but I don't think enough has been done to counter this even two years on. Plenty of people just think May is stubbornly denying them all that good stuff - the roads, hospitals, schools, research .....

Its called 'Austerity' and its been around a while.

Its not suprising that Irish posters cannot understand others actively opposing the socialisation-of-losses-and-privatisation-of-profits matra of the EU; you've swallowed it without a whimper.
Any change now and you start to look like mugs. Better double down on the 'look-at-dem-gobshites' line, otherwise you could end up looking really stupid.

There was narry a protest, electoral or otherwise, save the de facto mass expulsion of 10s of thousands of your young people when you went down.
Funny that, the Brits putting up a fight, starting with electoral defiance, to break from an empire and the Irish telling them where they're going wrong....
Youse are well managed, arent ye?
Herded, even.

Ireland hadnt the bollox to stand up for itself against the banks.... sure you were offering to bail out half of Europe before the EU stepped in and tried to stop you.
I think the Brits move is 'risky' but there is no way, no how they'll take criticism from such a supine, craven, mindless populace.
Nor should they.

Liek some posts on this thread, everytime I'm home I'm astonished at how people can be so well educated and yet so ignorant at the same time.... Lets just call it 'charm', shall we?

Ixelles wrote:
It's as though she's just being a dick, for reasons unknown or because she's part of an elite conspiracy.

Nothing at stake for the 'elites' in a hard Brexit, eh?

Real Stockholm Syndrome stuff. Cognitive dissonance ahoy!


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:12 pm 
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Sosthenes wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
Too late complaining about this now, obviously, but I don't think enough has been done to counter this even two years on. Plenty of people just think May is stubbornly denying them all that good stuff - the roads, hospitals, schools, research .....

Its called 'Austerity' and its been around a while.

Its not suprising that Irish posters cannot understand others actively opposing the socialisation-of-losses-and-privatisation-of-profits matra of the EU; you've swallowed it without a whimper.
Any change now and you start to look like mugs. Better double down on the 'look-at-dem-gobshites' line, otherwise you could end up looking really stupid.

There was narry a protest, electoral or otherwise, save the de facto mass expulsion of 10s of thousands of your young people when you went down.
Funny that, the Brits putting up a fight, starting with electoral defiance, to break from an empire and the Irish telling them where they're going wrong....
Youse are well managed, arent ye?
Herded, even.

Ireland hadnt the bollox to stand up for itself against the banks.... sure you were offering to bail out half of Europe before the EU stepped in and tried to stop you.
I think the Brits move is 'risky' but there is no way, no how they'll take criticism from such a supine, craven, mindless populace.
Nor should they.

Liek some posts on this thread, everytime I'm home I'm astonished at how people can be so well educated and yet so ignorant at the same time.... Lets just call it 'charm', shall we?

Ixelles wrote:
It's as though she's just being a dick, for reasons unknown or because she's part of an elite conspiracy.

Nothing at stake for the 'elites' in a hard Brexit, eh?

Real Stockholm Syndrome stuff. Cognitive dissonance ahoy!

I believe some 70% of those who emigrated during the recession, including myself left jobs, and many like myself returned to jobs, and some like myself left again for further career reasons. It's not the EUs or anyone's fault but ours that we let our property job market expand to unhealthy proportions whereby 15% of the workforce was engaged directly in construction and another 7/8% in ancillary industries to property development. I think someone else posted here that the average for a construction workforce for the average economy was around 8/9%.

The north of England has seen massive post industry population decline too yet they swallowed the line hook and sinker that is was the EUs fault.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:16 pm 
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Sosthenes wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
Too late complaining about this now, obviously, but I don't think enough has been done to counter this even two years on. Plenty of people just think May is stubbornly denying them all that good stuff - the roads, hospitals, schools, research .....

Its called 'Austerity' and its been around a while.

Its not suprising that Irish posters cannot understand others actively opposing the socialisation-of-losses-and-privatisation-of-profits matra of the EU; you've swallowed it without a whimper.
Any change now and you start to look like mugs. Better double down on the 'look-at-dem-gobshites' line, otherwise you could end up looking really stupid.

There was narry a protest, electoral or otherwise, save the de facto mass expulsion of 10s of thousands of your young people when you went down.
Funny that, the Brits putting up a fight, starting with electoral defiance, to break from an empire and the Irish telling them where they're going wrong....
Youse are well managed, arent ye?
Herded, even.

Ireland hadnt the bollox to stand up for itself against the banks.... sure you were offering to bail out half of Europe before the EU stepped in and tried to stop you.
I think the Brits move is 'risky' but there is no way, no how they'll take criticism from such a supine, craven, mindless populace.
Nor should they.

Liek some posts on this thread, everytime I'm home I'm astonished at how people can be so well educated and yet so ignorant at the same time.... Lets just call it 'charm', shall we?

Ixelles wrote:
It's as though she's just being a dick, for reasons unknown or because she's part of an elite conspiracy.

Nothing at stake for the 'elites' in a hard Brexit, eh?

Real Stockholm Syndrome stuff. Cognitive dissonance ahoy!


Not much wrong in that....

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:25 pm 
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Yawn, West brexiteers ;)
(who've clearly never lived in England...)

Seriously though, what are we going to do when there's a hard border on the island? Play pretend?

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:59 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Yawn, West brexiteers ;)
(who've clearly never lived in England...)

Seriously though, what are we going to do when there's a hard border on the island? Play pretend?

Customs posts I guess.
Image

Regional unemployment in the border areas will plummet with all the customs staff we'll need! Of we'll be able to hire Irish citizens from NI too. Quiet an unusual border in being able to be staff from either side.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:20 pm 
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Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:53 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?

We don't know yet what level of border control, if any will be required past March next year because the UK still doesn't know what relationship it wants with the EU 25 months after starting the two year countdown clock to leaving the bloc.

If March rolls around next year without an trade agreement or even transition towards a trade agreement, then the UK becomes as external to us as any non-EU/EEA/EFTA member. If we let UK goods enter our EU market without customs charges then any country could sue for the same access under WTO rules. Same applies to traffic going the other way. Considering the UK only accounts for 11% and falling of our export market, our EU market is far more important as we actually export more to Belgium than the UK.

Also too is the certification of UK exports to the EU. If the UK doesn't accept EU food quality controls then we have only their word that they're complying. Consider that 90% of their vets in the meat and dairy are EU immigrants then you can see where standards will start slipping just with staff shortages alone!

If you remember the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 cooperation between governments was crucial in controlling the outbreak, the general countryside shutdown in ireland contained the problem to just one farm, whereas Northern Ireland had been more affected. If EU standards and quality aren't been adhered to after March 2019 then all UK produce will have to undergo the same kind of onsite verification that Argentina signed up to allow their beef be sold in the EU again.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:33 am 
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Quote:
]
mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?]


Unless the UK caves entirely, an act which would, based on current sentiment, be political suicide, there will either be a hard border or a dilution of the Union.

This will be insisted upon by the EU, because to do otherwise and allow one of the pillar states cecede without seeking to impose serious economic consequences on it, would be to pave the way for the imminent demise of the entire European project in its current aspirational superstate (and beyond) phase. Such a scenario would herald the likely secession of Italy and possibly Hungary and Poland within one or two electoral cycles (IMO).

That Paddy can't get his little head around the fact that the same Germans and others who fiscally rogered him on behalf of 'the Morkesh' a few short years ago, (and who continue to roger his children) doesn't actually give a fuck about farmers in Fermanagh or Monaghan or indeed about a minor league peace process in a statelet with a smaller population than Berlin or indeed Bucharest is neither here nor there.... Stockholm syndrome how are ya.....but what would you expect from a ruling class who cared more about the price of their fucking houses than they did about the generation from whom they stole a decade and more.

Of course the most likely way out of such a hard border debacle would of course be for the North to enter into some form of arrangement with the rest of the island beyond the UK. But currently the political numbers are not favourable toward such an outcome. Nontheless it is one or the other i.e. Hard border or a softening/break up of the Union.

In my opinion the EU will favour whichever option seeks to humiliate the UK more i.e. The notion that they care less about Ireland is laughable and is only capable of being believed by a nation with the collective mentality of an abused child or battered wife i.e. 'he has changed' . So the EU's preferred outcome will depend on where they view lies the most potential for ritual political and economic humiliation of the U.K. Of course whether or not they will be in a position to achieve their objective remains to be seen. What's not in doubt however is that the manouvreing around the Irish border has littlw or nothing to do with safeguarding the interests of the Irish people.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:27 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?

The English do not care about the impact of a border in Ireland. For the tories, a hard border would trash the Anglo-Irish agreement, resulting in a return to warring camps in Ulster. This would be an ideal outcome for the Tories, as it would guarantee electoral majorities.

The guarantee of talks failure and a hard border is also the end game of the hard brexiteers and their Russian backers. Personally, a number of them stand to gain financially like Mogg who has positioned his off shore companies to benefit.

While the EU is unsympathetic to the problem child of the UK, it is tied in collective decision-making. The need for unanimity on a withdrawal agreement, means there is limited scope for maneuver.

The English want a hard border, but to blame the EU for it.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:00 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Quote:
]
mr_anderson wrote:
Can someone explain to me what the problem with the border question is about ?
Who wants one more, the British or EU ?]


Unless the UK caves entirely, an act which would, based on current sentiment, be political suicide, there will either be a hard border or a dilution of the Union.

Operation Banner essentially took up where the retreat from Aden ended, many who had fought the last withdrawal from far empire moved on to fight in the near empire. I doubt the UK could deploy 20.000 troops in NI now like they did in 1970, especially when contingency planning for a hard Brexit included pulling back field generators from Afghanistan just to keep the lights on in NI.

The hard brexiters don't have plans, only aspirations. One EU official said of the Checkers paper that it could be mistaken for an EU membership application! :D

The troubles were the British governments attempt to exert its authority by force, in that the GFA was a UK surrender.

The Loyalist are at the core of the Brexit fantasy. They're a cargo culture to the British Empire, a time when the UK was a terms giver and not a terms taker. Trashing the GFA won't bring back the empire, but as a cult they see no other way to exist. In many ways the GFA is the pin that's keeping the UK together. Pull it out and dominos fall.

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