Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Golden Circle » NAMAwatch (Pt. I)

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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:58 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
Also recall that many (including Morgan Kelly) thought that most of the NAMA bonds would never be repaid.


Most assumed the bubble prices wouldn't come back so soon but hey, look at us now!


Why be surprised, half the country was up to its neck in property, the only way out of the hole was to ramp property again, there was no plan B, there was no alternative, there really was no alternative for the thousands of middle class professionals who without raging property prices were one way or another unemployable, the long term problem has not been solved, the pain has only been postponed because for thousands of families it is simply too much to bear


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:04 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......
No, NAMA wasn't selling in 2010. NAMA was in the 'put the floor under the market' stage in 2010. The general view at the time (if there was one) was that the discounts on the transfer of the loans was already a dead loss for the taxpayers (€40 Billion?) and that the entire scheme would be run as a way to bail out and enrich insiders. I think that was accurate enough, but perhaps some of us never imagined that an Irish government would actively go out of it's way to facilitate foreign vulture funds.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:00 am 
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TheJackal wrote:
Just 500m to go, 3 years ahead of the original 2020 schedule

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/04 ... nior-debt/

No mention of

a) what "profit" it expects to make over the 30.2bn [AHEM ignoring the loans par value was 74bn!]

b) are they closing off NAMA so in 2018? Or building houses or what? Future is very unclear

https://www.nama.ie/about-us/news/news- ... f-EUR952m/


Not quite..

Seems they spent a total 42,618M to repo/cash settle said senior debt since 2 March 2011..

https://www.nama.ie/fileadmin/user_upload/SubOrdinatedBondsTermsheet.pdf

I know this sort of a/c'ing can be weird (and this is a weird document) but I assume that is a net number not gross. 2B p.a to carry 30B balance sheet, declining.

The other number I'd love to see is the final tally of net losses on all Anglos Interest Rate Swaps contracts as they closed out / ran out. I'm sure they are nowhere near Dexias 30B / 40B plus losses but I seem to remember 10B/12B as a ball park number for cash calls etc about six / seven years ago. And when you add that to the 4B plus FX contracts losses, or was it 8B (net, not notional)...

As for the bottom feeder funds cleaning up that was a given once the Germans Chapter 11'ed the country in 2010. A 20% plus return on distressed sovereign assets is about usual. So maybe 10B plus sounds about right.

Thats what happens when you bankrupt a country by trying to cover up a 30B hot money deposit flight from a second tier bank using circular deposits by the first tier banks and the CB. Everone gets busted. The Germans might be able to cover up more than 200B of DB losses by offloading them onto Debfa and bankrupting it and then parking the rubble in FMS-WM - but consequences are for the little people, and their countries.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:30 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......
No, NAMA wasn't selling in 2010. NAMA was in the 'put the floor under the market' stage in 2010. The general view at the time (if there was one) was that the discounts on the transfer of the loans was already a dead loss for the taxpayers (€40 Billion?) and that the entire scheme would be run as a way to bail out and enrich insiders. I think that was accurate enough, but perhaps some of us never imagined that an Irish government would actively go out of it's way to facilitate foreign vulture funds.


Because 100% national control of the property sector served us so well, right?


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:37 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......

The pin consensus also favoured a dead cat bounce :)


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:48 am 
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Luan wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......

The pin consensus also favoured a dead cat bounce :)

Image

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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:48 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......


Lets see.. NAMA aquired 80B for 40B and borrowed 30B.. give or take. And all Irish banks are still trading insolvent. Try a Basel I statement of current trading position and just look at all those very negative numbers..

Most NAMA "income" is from asset sales. Lets looks at the numbers from the last public a/c's '15.

Project Arrow 6.25B par... sold for 800M

Project Boyne 300M par.. sold for 95M

Project Jewel 2.6B par .. 1.85B (but only because its a real asset portfolio.. and I suspect NAMA "valuation")

etc..etc..

Total 8.5B... about 50% from selling real assets..

..and 5.5B in senior bond redemption.

The consensus in 2010 was that Anglo should have been allowed to fail. It would have cost less than 10B to cover the 20/30 year gov securities to recapitalize AIB/BOI. Which actually were of systemic importance.

As Ireland so far has only succeed in getting itself back economically to 1977 rather than 1987, still another 15 / 20 years to go..

Still most expensive bank bailout ever. Final cost? Over 70% of GNP? Actually we'll never know as now that the CSO has changed to fully conform to EuroStat's econometric methodology Ireland's GNP/GDP numbers are now completely meaningless. Pure gibberish. Much like the Cayman Islands. And Luxembourg.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:07 pm 
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Luan wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:
Pin consensus c 2010 was that Nama was not selling cheaply enough.......

The pin consensus also favoured a dead cat bounce :)


IMO Quantitative Easing turned what would have been a dead cat bounce into a substantial bubble reflation (in terms of prices, not credit thankfully, at least in Ireland).

Looking back and laughing, as if the the whole matter has been done & dusted, is myopic at best.

Personally, for business reasons, I really want this global debt charade to last at least another 2-3 years but we'll see.


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 Post subject: Re: NAMA has now repaid 29.7bn of the 30.2bn it borrowed
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:31 pm 
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jmc wrote:
And all Irish banks are still trading insolvent. Try a Basel I statement of current trading position and just look at all those very negative numbers..


I wonder what the Basel IV changes will do for the Irish banks... :x


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